Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:08:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
70 0x7090…a5ff crypto 707 markets active 1h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,342 (-8%) realized −$6,500 · open +$158
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate41%283W / 408L
Whale WR39%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day17.8pace
Fees−$1,022est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$744now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$519
7 days−$2,547
14 days−$4,886
30 days−$9,244
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$9,206
crypto 36% +$1,326
other 2% −$803
politics 0% +$83
world 0% +$11
tech 0% −$7
economics 0% −$8
finance 0% +$1
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -14.0% -22.2% 36% 31% -51.6%
≤30d 445 +0.4% -9.2% 41% 37% -24.4%
≤90d 649 -3.4% -12.6% 39% 35% -20.6%
all 691 +2.2% -7.5% 41% 37% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 37% -19.8%
10% -16.4% 35% -27.5%
15% -24.5% 33% -34.5%
20% -31.9% 30% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 39% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$128 vs −$110 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$744
Realized−$6,500
Unrealized+$158
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses283 / 408
Whale WR (big bets)39%
Est. fees paid−$1,022
Open positions16
Markets (closed)691 / 707
History coverage149d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day17.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 691 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India South Africa 35¢ 49¢ $504 $710 +$207 (+41%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $59 $21 −$37 (-64%)
Will Juliana Brizola win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? Yes 53¢ 42¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-20%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 57¢ 94¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+64%)
Will Christopher Taylor be the Democratic nominee for the Ann Arbor Mayoral Election? Yes 74¢ 57¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-22%)
Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in July 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
New pandemic in 2026? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Ebola pandemic in 2026? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-42%)
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? Yes 27¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-57%)
Will Beatriz Hatz win Love Island USA Season 8? Yes 89¢ 34¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-62%)
Will there be at least 2300 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-68%)
Will Gabriel Vasconcelos win Love Island USA Season 8? Yes 85¢ 18¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-78%)
Will June 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record? No 65¢ 3¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-95%)
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in June 2026? Yes 47¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Will Marcelo Maranata win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 319 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 21 $498 +$345 +69%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh Jun 20 $929 −$677 -73%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 20 $196 −$196 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$7 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $596 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $105 +$311 +296%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 19 $1,519 −$1,519 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $16 +$24 +153%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $199 −$198 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $15 +$8 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 19 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -95%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $87 +$62 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $105 +$70 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $16 +$26 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 18 $16 +$21 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $16 +$87 +547%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $116 −$10 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Jun 17 $105 +$60 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -95%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland Jun 16 $75 −$75 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $233 −$233 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$5 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $292 −$285 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $197 −$193 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $61 −$58 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $202 +$133 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $61 −$58 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $120 −$70 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $34 −$34 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $23 +$12 +50%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $1,279 −$1,279 -100%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $249 −$249 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $1,037 −$1,031 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$8 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$13 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$10 +99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY South Africa 33¢ $201 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY South Africa 36¢ $291 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY South Africa 36¢ $4 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY South Africa 36¢ $2 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY South Africa 36¢ $5 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY South Africa 36¢ $1 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka SELL West Indies 100¢ $843 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 59¢ $34 6h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 59¢ $59 6h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 59¢ $47 6h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 59¢ $59 6h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 59¢ $59 6h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 59¢ $66 6h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 59¢ $3 7h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 59¢ $14 7h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 59¢ $72 7h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 59¢ $4 8h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 59¢ $32 8h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 59¢ $11 8h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 59¢ $5 8h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 59¢ $13 8h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 59¢ $14 8h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 59¢ $5 8h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Pakistan 72¢ $308 24h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Pakistan 72¢ $360 24h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Pakistan 72¢ $9 24h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh SELL Bangladesh 27¢ $264 24h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 21¢ $102 25h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 27¢ $3 25h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 27¢ $0 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $744.23 · official $715.23 · 2957 history records