Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:54:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.0
score
70 0x708d…ea78 politics 355 markets active 0h ago coverage 379d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL +$12,428 (+5%) realized +$11,180 · open +$1,248
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate59%204W / 142L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$772per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$164est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$7,464now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5,091
7 days+$3,938
14 days+$5,265
30 days+$7,457
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$6,407
politics 27% +$12,060
other 13% +$8,505
sports 9% −$281
economics 2% −$808
finance 1% −$1,052
tech 0% −$53
culture 0% −$76
crypto 0% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +18.4% +7.1% 55% 52% +7.8%
≤30d 73 +60.8% +45.5% 56% 40% +0.9%
≤90d 200 +50.8% +36.4% 57% 42% -14.6%
all 346 +35.9% +22.9% 59% 42% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +22.9% 42% -6.3%
10% +11.2% 34% -15.3%
15% +0.4% 26% -23.5%
20% -9.4% 22% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$563) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +20% → late +52% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$286 vs −$346 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

379d coverage
Net worth$7,464
Realized+$11,180
Unrealized+$1,248
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses204 / 142
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$164
Open positions9
Markets (closed)346 / 355
History coverage379d
Avg bet$772
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 346 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 43¢ 56¢ $3,176 $4,143 +$967 (+30%)
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 52¢ 69¢ $1,125 $1,504 +$379 (+34%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 51¢ 53¢ $822 $846 +$23 (+3%)
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes 68¢ 56¢ $816 $678 −$138 (-17%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 57¢ 62¢ $230 $246 +$16 (+7%)
Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? Yes 73¢ 84¢ $40 $46 +$6 (+16%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-72%)
Will Ralph Norman win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $103 +$20 +19%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 18 $208 +$29 +14%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? Jun 18 $248 +$386 +156%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 18 $16 +$26 +161%
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 18 $1,334 −$435 -33%
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 18 $738 +$78 +11%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 17 $3,065 +$2,828 +92%
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima Jun 17 $189 +$339 +180%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $2,471 +$1,710 +69%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $402 +$137 +34%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $1,332 −$26 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 16 $33 +$5 +16%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $75 +$25 +33%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $2,808 −$1,237 -44%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $114 +$12 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $1,060 +$1,507 +142%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $233 −$72 -31%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 14 $553 −$11 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 14 $139 +$79 +57%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 14 $198 +$109 +55%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $401 −$202 -50%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $240 −$87 -36%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $1,793 −$546 -30%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $1,983 −$992 -50%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? Jun 14 $7 −$6 -96%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $131 −$3 -2%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 13 $25 −$21 -83%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Jun 13 $666 +$306 +46%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $113 −$29 -26%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $552 +$172 +31%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1,246 +$61 +5%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $1,920 +$1,248 +65%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $896 −$75 -8%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $273 +$18 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $348 +$216 +62%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $752 +$112 +15%
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 06 $493 −$479 -97%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 4? Jun 05 $866 +$83 +10%
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General b Jun 04 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Trump Derangement Syndrome" in June? Jun 03 $120 +$22 +18%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Barack Obama by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $1,079 +$49 +4%
Will Zach Lahn win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election? Jun 03 $4,240 +$260 +6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $1,260 +$93 +7%
Will Trump say "Nuke" in May? Jun 02 $3 +$2 +96%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $11 −$10 -97%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 01 $133 −$129 -97%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on May 29? May 30 $77 +$2 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 29 $132 −$107 -81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $1,218 4m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $152 6m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $1,181 8m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $300 9m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $1,830 29m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 38¢ $123 55m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $3,780 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $7 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $237 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $2,988 1h
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 68¢ $42 17h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 10¢ $121 17h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $208 18h
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $16 20h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 63¢ $312 20h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $1 20h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $1 20h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $1 20h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $1 20h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $1 20h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $1 20h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $1 20h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $1 20h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $1 20h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $1 20h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $1 20h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $1 20h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $1 20h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $1 20h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $1 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,464.12 · official $7,204.66 · 1860 history records