Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:31:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x708c…b230 crypto 1602 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 65d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$213 (-4%) realized −$213 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate53%854W / 769L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day41.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$64
7 days−$316
14 days−$804
30 days−$727
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$382
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 369 -18.9% -26.6% 43% 43% -32.8%
≤30d 968 -19.1% -26.8% 48% 48% -29.0%
≤90d 1623 -6.2% -15.1% 53% 52% -16.2%
all 1623 -6.2% -15.1% 53% 52% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.1% 52% -16.2%
10% ← realistic here -23.3% 50% -24.2%
15% -30.7% 45% -31.6%
20% -37.5% 30% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$213
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses854 / 769
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1623 / 1602
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day41.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1623 Trades
no open positions (176 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +103%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +52%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +110%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +47%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 38h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $0 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $7 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $6 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $0 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $3 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $6 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.70 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records