Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:29:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
70 0x708c…0e36 world 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 531d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$33 (+1%) realized +$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate48%19W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 31% +$9
sports 28% −$14
other 23% +$36
world 17% +$1
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.3% -9.8% 44% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 16 -0.9% -10.3% 38% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 27 +0.8% -8.8% 37% 7% -7.6%
all 40 +2.0% -7.7% 48% 15% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 15% -8.2%
10% -16.5% 10% -17.0%
15% -24.6% 5% -25.0%
20% -32.0% 5% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

531d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses19 / 21
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage531d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $68 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $36 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $36 +$1 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $44 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $1 $0 -6%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $6 −$1 -14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $35 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $20 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $35 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $24 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $34 +$2 +4%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $52 $0 -1%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 24 $179 +$1 +0%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Apr 24 $111 +$31 +28%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $46 +$4 +9%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 22 $76 +$9 +12%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $250 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 13 $228 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $213 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $289 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $6 −$1 -13%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 10 $229 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115K in June? Dec 07 $2 $0 +4%
Will valid votes be between 30 million and 32 million in South Korean Jun 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $1 $0 +3%
William & Mary vs. Towson Mar 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Bradley vs. Valparaiso Feb 26 $13 $0 +0%
Michigan State vs. Maryland Feb 25 $9 +$3 +33%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on February 28? Feb 25 $9 $0 +3%
MD Eastern Shore vs. Howard Feb 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Bayern Munich vs. Celtic end in a draw? Feb 17 $9 +$1 +11%
Duquesne vs. Dayton Feb 16 $27 +$27 +100%
Jacksonville State vs. Sam Houston State Feb 14 $12 +$12 +100%
Will the Rams win the NFC Championship? Jan 22 $13 +$1 +6%
Will Ron DeSantis be appointed as the next Florida senator? Jan 04 $0 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $36 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $36 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $19 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $16 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $36 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $6 27h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $30 27h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $36 30h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 42h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 43h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $36 46h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $36 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $13 4d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $13 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $23 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $13 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $36 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $5 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $3 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $0 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $2 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $33 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 125 history records