Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:15:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x708b…e937 weather 1623 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 13d only
✗ bot/MM pace (212 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$139 (+2%) realized +$136 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate95%1391W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day211.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$901now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days+$48
14 days+$17
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (212 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 862 +1.0% -8.6% 96% 19% -8.6%
≤30d 1463 +0.3% -9.3% 95% 18% -9.3%
≤90d 1463 +0.3% -9.3% 95% 18% -9.3%
all 1463 +0.3% -9.3% 95% 18% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover211.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 18% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 1% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$901
Realized+$136
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses1391 / 72
Open positions160
Markets (closed)1463 / 1623
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day211.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 160 History 1463 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15? No 83¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C or higher on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? No 97¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 15? No 97¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 15? No 92¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 15? No 98¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 15? No 95¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 15? No 97¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 15? No 87¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 15? No 96¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? No 95¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 36°C or higher on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? No 86¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 15? No 98¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 15? No 98¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 15? No 94¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? No 95¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 68 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 15 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 67°F or below on June Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 14? Jun 15 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 14? Jun 15 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 14? Jun 15 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 15 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 14? Jun 15 $6 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 14? Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 14? Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 16? Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 14? Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 14? Jun 15 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 14? Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 14? Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $6 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 14? Jun 15 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 14? Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 8°C on June 14? Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 14? Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 15 $6 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 12? Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? Jun 15 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Jun 15 $6 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? Jun 15 $6 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? Jun 15 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 15? Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $3 15m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $6 35m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 95¢ $6 35m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 83¢ $5 35m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $5 35m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $6 41m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $5 51m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $5 55m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $0 55m
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $6 56m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 86¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 90¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $6 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $901.12 · official $900.75 (match) · 3500 history records