Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:56:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x7089…dee0 crypto 486 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 9d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (321 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7,068 (-60%) realized −$7,068 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate63%304W / 180L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day320.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (321 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 146 -30.2% -36.9% 30% 17% -21.5%
≤30d 484 -4.9% -14.0% 63% 19% -10.1%
≤90d 484 -4.9% -14.0% 63% 19% -10.1%
all 484 -4.9% -14.0% 63% 19% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover320.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.0% 19% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -22.2% 12% -18.7%
15% -29.7% 10% -26.5%
20% -36.6% 8% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7,068
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses304 / 180
Open positions0
Markets (closed)484 / 486
History coverage9d ⚠
Avg bet$24
Trades / day320.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 484 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $17 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $42 −$9 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$5 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $45 −$11 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $22 −$6 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$13 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $33 −$7 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$4 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $19 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$6 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$4 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$3 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $78 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$4 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$8 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $39 −$6 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$19 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$7 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $24 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $27 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $58 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records