Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:52:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x7087…8c57 sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$620 (-28%) realized −$341 · open −$279
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%3W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$104
7 days−$365
14 days−$513
30 days−$726
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$533
other 15% −$318
crypto 7% −$155
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-48.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -32.8% -39.2% 15% 15% -40.0%
≤30d 21 -43.4% -48.8% 14% 14% -47.1%
≤90d 21 -43.4% -48.8% 14% 14% -47.1%
all 21 -43.4% -48.8% 14% 14% -47.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.8% 14% -47.1%
10% -53.7% 14% -52.2%
15% -58.1% 14% -56.8%
20% -62.3% 14% -61.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -63% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$243 vs −$81 · ×3.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$341
Unrealized−$279
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses3 / 18
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions2
Markets (closed)21 / 23
History coverage21d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 2.5 Over 28¢ $200 $14 −$186 (-93%)
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Over 23¢ $101 $8 −$93 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $101 +$309 +307%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 26 $104 −$100 -96%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 25 $60 −$58 -98%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $51 −$50 -97%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $105 −$102 -98%
Spread: Algeria (-2.5) Jun 23 $111 −$109 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $263 −$80 -30%
Spread: Uruguay (-3.5) Jun 21 $174 −$169 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 21 $52 −$50 -96%
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Jun 21 $56 +$204 +366%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $56 −$55 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $112 −$110 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
United States vs. Australia: Australia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $100 +$217 +216%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $55 −$54 -97%
Will Kawasaki Frontale win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $109 −$106 -97%
Spread: Yokohama F·Marinos (-1.5) Jun 06 $55 −$54 -98%
Will Gamba Ōsaka win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $54 −$53 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 BUY Over 23¢ $103 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $204 1h
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 22¢ $102 3h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 24¢ $101 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $104 11h
Czechia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 18¢ $60 2d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 10¢ $51 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 19¢ $105 3d
Spread: Algeria (-2.5) BUY Algeria 19¢ $111 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 33¢ $57 5d
Spread: Uruguay (-3.5) BUY Uruguay $174 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 32¢ $174 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 37¢ $207 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $52 5d
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Japan 21¢ $56 5d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $56 6d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $112 7d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 10¢ $103 7d
United States vs. Australia: Australia 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 32¢ $102 7d
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev SELL Daniel Altmaier 100¢ $317 7d
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniel Altmaier 31¢ $100 7d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 BUY Over $55 8d
Will Kawasaki Frontale win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes $109 20d
Spread: Yokohama F·Marinos (-1.5) BUY Shimizu S-Pulse 21¢ $55 20d
Will Gamba Ōsaka win on 2026-06-06? BUY No 34¢ $54 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.66 · official $21.66 (match) · 28 history records