Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:25:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x7085…11ed weather 394 markets active 22h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$103 (-8%) realized −$104 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate28%105W / 270L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$22
14 days−$16
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% −$58
other 30% +$44
weather 22% −$89
politics 6% −$4
world 5% $0
crypto 5% −$19
finance 1% +$2
economics 0% $0
culture 0% −$2
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +12.3% +1.6% 50% 50% +1.9%
≤30d 137 -24.6% -31.7% 27% 27% -21.0%
≤90d 374 -15.5% -23.6% 28% 25% -18.8%
all 375 -15.6% -23.7% 28% 25% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 25% -19.0%
10% -31.0% 23% -26.8%
15% -37.7% 19% -33.9%
20% -43.8% 17% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized−$104
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses105 / 270
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions19
Markets (closed)375 / 394
History coverage91d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 375 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+14%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+31%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+17%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 50¢ 52¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-13%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-17%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? No 78¢ 82¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 55¢ 62¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 54¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Over 41¢ 40¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Under 46¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-35%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Under 50¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Under 35¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Under 30¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 −$3 -42%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 +$2 +119%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 17 $6 +$12 +186%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4 +$2 +40%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $9 −$5 -51%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 +$2 +65%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $4 +$5 +123%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $13 −$5 -38%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $3 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3 +$3 +83%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $6 +$2 +33%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $12 $0 -0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $7 −$1 -12%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$4 +414%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +28%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 +$3 +83%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +122%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2 +$3 +158%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $4 +$5 +129%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $12 +$2 +17%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $8 −$3 -33%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $7 −$7 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $9 +$9 +97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 13 $1 +$2 +169%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 13 $1 $0 +22%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $8 +$11 +134%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 +$2 +44%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $2 +$2 +93%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $6 −$1 -14%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $3 +$4 +140%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL Yes 100¢ $14 21h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $1 23h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $1 23h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 30¢ $1 23h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $2 23h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $2 23h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2 23h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 40¢ $4 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $3 34h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $4 34h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 32¢ $2 34h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 45¢ $8 34h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 62¢ $3 34h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? BUY No 6¢ $0 37h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL No 86¢ $4 38h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 38h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 87¢ $4 38h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 14¢ $2 38h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $3 42h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $2 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $3 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.40 · official $78.36 (match) · 1085 history records