Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:27:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x7084…8600 sports 671 markets active 6h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$1 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate48%316W / 349L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$15
14 days−$31
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$16
other 43% −$14
politics 3% −$5
world 2% +$8
crypto 1% −$2
culture 0% +$3
finance 0% +$1
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -13.1% -21.4% 48% 45% -18.9%
≤30d 296 -2.1% -11.4% 50% 49% -11.9%
≤90d 647 -2.3% -11.6% 47% 45% -10.9%
all 665 -1.3% -10.7% 48% 45% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 45% -10.5%
10% -19.2% 43% -19.1%
15% -27.0% 37% -26.9%
20% -34.2% 30% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses316 / 349
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions6
Markets (closed)665 / 671
History coverage119d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 665 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score No 52¢ 52¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 50¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 64¢ 64¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Portugal leading at halftime? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score No 60¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 142 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $2 $0 -7%
Panama to win the second half? Jun 17 $2 $0 -18%
Panama leading at halftime? Jun 17 $1 $0 -9%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 $0 -1%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$2 +34%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $3 +$2 +79%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 +$5 +90%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 −$3 -50%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -92%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $3 $0 +9%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +40%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 +$4 +93%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $8 $0 -2%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -41%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $7 +$2 +29%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $4 +$1 +27%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $6 +$1 +14%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 +$2 +44%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$1 +27%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 -3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +31%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $4 +$1 +34%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +44%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Togo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2 +$3 +158%
Will Belarus vs. Burkina Faso end in a draw? Jun 09 $2 +$3 +206%
Togo vs. Benin: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Burkina Faso win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $4 −$3 -98%
Liberia vs. Sierra Leone: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $3 −$2 -99%
Will DR Congo vs. Chile end in a draw? Jun 09 $7 −$2 -24%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $12 −$4 -29%
Indonesia vs. Mozambique: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $3 +$2 +76%
Spread: China PR (-1.5) Jun 09 $5 +$2 +31%
Spread: Indonesia (-1.5) Jun 09 $3 $0 -6%
Will Philippines win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $3 −$2 -98%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $4 −$3 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 09 $4 −$3 -98%
Niger vs. Mauritania: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $5 +$3 +64%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 08 $4 +$5 +109%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 6h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 6h
Panama to win the second half? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 6h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $3 6h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 64¢ $2 6h
Panama leading at halftime? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 8h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 29¢ $3 8h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 9h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $2 9h
Panama leading at halftime? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 27h
Panama to win the second half? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 27h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 27h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $3 28h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL No 56¢ $2 28h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Algeria 57¢ $2 28h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 58¢ $5 28h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $5 28h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $3 30h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 41¢ $3 30h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $3 38h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $5 39h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) SELL IR Iran 2¢ $0 41h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Cabo Verde 90¢ $5 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL No 71¢ $4 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 48¢ $3 2d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Cabo Verde 80¢ $5 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $3 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 33¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.82 · official $9.82 (match) · 1291 history records