trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $5 | +$6 | +114% |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $5 | −$5 | -99% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $8 | +$3 | +42% |
| Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? | Jun 11 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $1 | −$1 | -97% |
| Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? | May 18 | $2 | −$2 | -97% |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | May 18 | $1 | $0 | +5% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | May 18 | $1 | $0 | -34% |
| Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | May 18 | $1 | −$1 | -67% |
| Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? | May 06 | $9 | −$9 | -100% |
| Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? | May 06 | $5 | −$5 | -99% |
| Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? | May 03 | $5 | +$6 | +124% |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? | May 02 | $1 | +$1 | +73% |
| Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-02? | May 02 | $2 | −$2 | -98% |
| Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-01? | May 02 | $1 | $0 | +38% |
| Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-30? | Apr 30 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Will Manchester United finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Prem | Apr 30 | $1 | −$1 | -97% |
| Will Arsenal finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League | Apr 30 | $1 | −$1 | -97% |
| Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? | Apr 30 | $3 | +$7 | +238% |
| Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? | Apr 29 | $3 | $0 | -7% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -28.9% | -35.7% | 40% | 40% | +0.2% |
| ≤30d | 9 | -37.8% | -43.7% | 33% | 22% | -12.4% |
| ≤90d | 20 | -23.8% | -31.0% | 35% | 30% | -17.4% |
| all | 20 | -23.8% | -31.0% | 35% | 30% | -17.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -31.0% | 30% | -17.4% |
| 10% | -37.6% | 30% | -25.3% |
| 15% | -43.6% | 30% | -32.5% |
| 20% | -49.2% | 20% | -39.1% |