Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:20:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x707e…a614 sports 257 markets active 2h ago coverage 201d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$434 (-2%) realized −$575 · open +$141
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate37%93W / 157L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$142est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$401now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$203
7 days+$375
14 days+$454
30 days+$425
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$495
world 10% −$14
other 9% −$41
politics 2% +$4
finance 1% −$23
economics 0% −$19
weather 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -10.9% -19.4% 44% 44% +12.4%
≤30d 52 -17.5% -25.4% 38% 38% +5.6%
≤90d 148 -13.4% -21.6% 42% 39% -10.2%
all 250 -14.8% -22.9% 37% 34% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.9% 34% -12.9%
10% -30.3% 33% -21.2%
15% -37.0% 29% -28.8%
20% -43.2% 26% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$36 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

201d coverage
Net worth$401
Realized−$575
Unrealized+$141
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses93 / 157
Est. fees paid−$142
Open positions4
Markets (closed)250 / 257
History coverage201d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 250 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 24¢ $150 $321 +$171 (+114%)
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 40¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-21%)
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 34¢ $50 $38 −$12 (-24%)
Wimbledon WTA: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs McCartney Kessler Oleksandra Oliynykova 17¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P Jun 28 $20 −$7 -36%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $304 +$215 +71%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $71 −$70 -99%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 26 $36 −$35 -98%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $38 −$37 -99%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 26 $51 +$47 +93%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $71 +$31 +44%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $152 −$13 -9%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $31 +$41 +134%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $199 +$150 +75%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 25 $61 −$60 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $203 +$164 +81%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $51 −$50 -99%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $76 +$56 +73%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $76 +$58 +76%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $15 −$15 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $20 −$4 -20%
IR Iran to score first vs. Belgium? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $30 −$30 -98%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $36 +$21 +60%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 +$30 +60%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $49 +$47 +96%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 +$33 +65%
World Cup: Any Team to Score 10+ Goals in the Group Stage? Jun 20 $10 −$4 -37%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $100 −$98 -98%
South Africa to score first vs. Czechia? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $36 +$33 +93%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$107 +105%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$22 +109%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $31 +$20 +65%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $25 +$34 +134%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 +$16 +107%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $50 +$79 +158%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $68 −$67 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $49 −$1 -2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$29 +114%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $9 −$9 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $51 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $51 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs McCartney Kessler BUY Oleksandra Oliynykova 17¢ $10 8h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P SELL Acend 17¢ $13 20h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P BUY Acend 25¢ $20 20h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 20h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 92¢ $519 20h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 53¢ $304 22h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $71 2d
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 43¢ $36 2d
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $38 2d
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 96¢ $98 2d
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) SELL Senegal 88¢ $102 2d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 49¢ $51 2d
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 58¢ $139 2d
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 60¢ $71 3d
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $152 3d
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL Yes 84¢ $72 3d
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $31 3d
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $138 3d
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $61 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 3d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 49¢ $61 3d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06- BUY 12¢ $10 4d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $367 4d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $203 4d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 6d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 60¢ $51 6d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $76 7d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $76 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $400.97 · official $400.97 (match) · 698 history records