Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:37:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

70
0x707d…5f92
other · 360 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$36 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$40 · open +$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$45
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses139 / 193
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions26
Markets (closed)332 / 360
History coverage160d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%
Chart Positions 26 History 332 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$2
14 days+$1
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 33¢ 36¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+8%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+272%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+26%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 66¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 55¢ 56¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 80¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 78¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 67¢ 60¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Yes 48¢ 78¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+64%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+34%)
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? No 88¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Discord IPO before 2027? Yes 63¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 59¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Remote IPO before 2027? No 82¢ 78¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Rafael Leao be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? No 79¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Yes 13¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-58%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 22¢ 3¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$5 -48%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +165%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $7 +$6 +83%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -91%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 -5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $6 −$3 -46%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 07 $2 −$2 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $3 +$6 +197%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $6 −$6 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $4 +$8 +199%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 0 Arsenal FC? May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $2 −$2 -97%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 +$2 +152%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 +$3 +26%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $1 +$2 +188%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2 +$1 +73%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 19 $1 +$1 +56%
Will Brentford FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? May 19 $1 +$2 +180%
Will Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? May 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 14 $1 $0 +39%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $3 +$2 +55%
Will Burnley FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? May 10 $1 +$1 +124%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $1 $0 +44%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw? May 10 $1 +$3 +262%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 10 $5 +$4 +73%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Fulham FC vs. AFC Bournemouth end in a draw? May 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-08? May 09 $2 +$1 +46%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-08? May 09 $2 +$1 +70%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 08 $2 −$2 -99%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 07 $2 +$9 +442%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 07 $2 $0 -22%
Will Lille OSC vs. Le Havre AC end in a draw? May 04 $1 $0 +32%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $2 +$1 +48%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $4 +$3 +67%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $1 +$1 +86%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $2 +$1 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 48% −$4
sports 21% +$13
world 21% −$34
crypto 6% −$6
politics 2% −$3
culture 1% −$3
finance 1% +$2
tech 0% −$1
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 1h
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 11h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 11h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 48¢ $5 19h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will United States vs. Para BUY 12¢ $1 19h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 19h
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 21h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 22h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 22h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY No 55¢ $2 33h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 64¢ $2 33h
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 81¢ $2 33h
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $2 33h
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele BUY Yes 59¢ $1 33h
Remote IPO before 2027? BUY No 82¢ $1 33h
Discord IPO before 2027? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 33h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $4 46h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $3 46h
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 79¢ $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY No 88¢ $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Will Rafael Leao be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 4d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.4% -9.1% 33% 33% -4.3%
≤30d 23 +17.8% +6.6% 48% 48% -0.3%
≤90d 155 -8.5% -17.2% 40% 40% -16.3%
all 332 -4.8% -13.9% 42% 41% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 41% -15.8%
10% -22.1% 39% -23.8%
15% -29.6% 37% -31.2%
20% -36.5% 33% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.39 · official $51.44 · 578 history records