Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:36:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
70 0x707c…bb74 other 560 markets active 2h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$159 (+4%) realized +$157 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate69%376W / 168L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$95
14 days+$111
30 days+$129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$94
sports 30% +$92
weather 23% +$29
politics 1% −$2
world 1% −$10
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +50.6% +36.3% 93% 93% +37.2%
≤30d 53 +16.1% +5.0% 70% 70% +9.3%
≤90d 271 +1.2% -8.4% 68% 68% -6.7%
all 544 +5.3% -4.7% 69% 62% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 62% -4.9%
10% -13.8% 45% -14.0%
15% -22.1% 28% -22.3%
20% -29.8% 19% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$157
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses376 / 168
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)544 / 560
History coverage142d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 544 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 47¢ 68¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $7 +$5 +76%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 AND Will Netherlands win Jun 26 $20 +$13 +66%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $6 +$4 +59%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $13 +$12 +91%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$4 +73%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $7 +$4 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $15 +$9 +62%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5 AND Will Portugal win on 202 Jun 23 $15 +$13 +86%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$9 +45%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $19 +$10 +52%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $6 +$4 +60%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 +$15 +49%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $3 +$2 +57%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$3 +67%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $7 −$7 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $4 +$4 +101%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $3 +$2 +67%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $7 −$7 -98%
Endrick: 1+ goals Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 +$5 +54%
Rayan: 1+ goals Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Raphinha: 1+ goals Jun 20 $5 −$2 -35%
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ goals Jun 20 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$4 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $12 +$8 +62%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $7 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $10 +$8 +78%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 +$14 +93%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $30 +$16 +53%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$4 +83%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $20 +$16 +77%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $7 +$4 +50%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $37 +$25 +69%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $43 −$43 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $7 −$7 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $30 −$1 -3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 +$2 +14%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 +$8 +50%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +54%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $7 +$4 +54%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 +$2 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5 AND Will Panama win on 2026-06 BUY 53¢ $25 15h
Panama vs. England: England O/U 2.5 AND Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY 56¢ $20 15h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 AND Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? AND BUY 41¢ $10 15h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY 41¢ $10 37h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY 56¢ $7 37h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 AND Will Netherlands win BUY 60¢ $20 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? AN BUY 59¢ $20 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 57¢ $15 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? AND Will South Africa win on 2026-06-2 BUY 65¢ $15 3d
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 51¢ $13 4d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY 62¢ $6 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $7 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 4d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY 73¢ $15 5d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 1.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026- BUY 49¢ $7 5d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5 AND Will Portugal win on 202 BUY 53¢ $15 5d
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY 69¢ $20 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $19 6d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 61¢ $5 6d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY 73¢ $10 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 42¢ $10 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 6d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.34 · official $56.88 · 1290 history records