Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:03:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
70 0x707b…69f2 sports 405 markets active 1h ago coverage 1139d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$16,369 (-7%) realized −$17,179 · open +$810
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%186W / 211L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$604per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1,301est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$20,506now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,124
7 days−$47
14 days−$15,558
30 days−$14,830
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$21,228
politics 16% +$852
finance 12% −$499
other 9% +$6,514
crypto 3% +$98
culture 2% −$574
economics 1% −$1,410
world 1% −$592
tech 0% −$998
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +23.5% +11.7% 27% 27% -10.0%
≤30d 96 +8.0% -2.3% 38% 36% -31.8%
≤90d 115 +4.0% -5.9% 39% 38% -30.7%
all 397 -8.0% -16.8% 47% 44% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 44% -17.0%
10% -24.8% 38% -25.0%
15% -32.0% 33% -32.2%
20% -38.7% 29% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$352 vs −$398 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1139d coverage
Net worth$20,506
Realized−$17,179
Unrealized+$810
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses186 / 211
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$1,301
Open positions7
Markets (closed)397 / 405
History coverage1139d
Avg bet$604
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 397 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $17,556 $18,387 +$831 (+5%)
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $1,130 $1,150 +$20 (+2%)
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Taylor Fritz 68¢ 66¢ $300 $293 −$7 (-2%)
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Tommy Paul 68¢ 66¢ $300 $293 −$7 (-2%)
Set Handicap: Jovic (-1.5) vs Wang (+1.5) Jovic 55¢ 52¢ $200 $189 −$11 (-5%)
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens Alexandra Eala 53¢ 48¢ $200 $181 −$19 (-9%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $252 +$105 +42%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $205 +$1,613 +785%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $407 +$618 +152%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $204 −$200 -98%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 19 $204 −$200 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $203 −$200 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $205 −$22 -10%
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists Jun 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 19 $203 −$203 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $203 −$203 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Nicolas Jackson: 1+ goals Jun 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 19 $205 −$205 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $507 −$507 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 19 $307 −$307 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $203 +$161 +79%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $203 +$273 +134%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $303 +$173 +57%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $204 −$204 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 16 $307 −$231 -75%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $406 −$406 -100%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $202 −$202 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 16 $203 −$203 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 16 $203 −$203 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $205 +$704 +344%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $204 +$485 +238%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $205 +$629 +307%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $203 +$205 +101%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $204 −$116 -57%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$742 +1444%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,007 −$236 -23%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $515 −$299 -58%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $203 −$196 -97%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $508 +$492 +97%
Spread: Spurs (-12.5) Jun 14 $152 +$148 +97%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5) Jun 13 $203 −$203 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $102 +$255 +250%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $202 +$120 +60%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $305 +$308 +101%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $102 −$102 -100%
Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Maria (+1.5) Jun 12 $303 −$303 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens BUY Alexandra Eala 53¢ $203 1h
Set Handicap: Jovic (-1.5) vs Wang (+1.5) BUY Jovic 55¢ $203 1h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Tommy Paul 68¢ $303 1h
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Taylor Fritz 68¢ $303 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $252 7h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $205 11h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $205 29h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $205 29h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $203 32h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $204 37h
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $204 40h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $203 40h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $205 40h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $507 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $204 2d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 55¢ $203 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $183 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $203 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $205 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $205 2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 56¢ $203 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $203 3d
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists BUY Yes 35¢ $102 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $303 4d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 4d
Nicolas Jackson: 1+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $102 4d
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 4d
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 4d
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $307 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20,506.18 · official $20,506.18 (match) · 1309 history records