trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | No | 89¢ | 87¢ | $399,999 | $390,155 | −$9,844 (-2%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 81¢ | 64¢ | $120,000 | $93,511 | −$26,489 (-22%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | No | 65¢ | 56¢ | $100,000 | $85,453 | −$14,546 (-15%) |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? | No | 78¢ | 88¢ | $5,000 | $5,660 | +$660 (+13%) |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | No | 33¢ | 40¢ | $2,500 | $3,085 | +$585 (+23%) |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? | No | 61¢ | 72¢ | $2,500 | $2,913 | +$413 (+17%) |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? | No | 16¢ | 14¢ | $2,500 | $2,099 | −$401 (-16%) |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Yes | 41¢ | 13¢ | $5,000 | $1,585 | −$3,415 (-68%) |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? | No | 14¢ | 5¢ | $2,000 | $764 | −$1,236 (-62%) |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 15? | Yes | 31¢ | 4¢ | $500 | $61 | −$439 (-88%) |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 11? | Yes | 27¢ | 0¢ | $500 | $0 | −$500 (-100%) |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 10? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | $1,500 | $0 | −$1,500 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by June 10? | Jun 10 | $1,500 | −$1,500 | -100% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 11? | Jun 10 | $500 | −$500 | -100% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | Jun 08 | $229,900 | +$8,401 | +4% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | May 30 | $13,517 | +$17 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -65.4% | -68.7% | 33% | 0% | -7.0% |
| ≤30d | 4 | -49.1% | -53.9% | 50% | 0% | -7.2% |
| ≤90d | 4 | -49.1% | -53.9% | 50% | 0% | -7.2% |
| all | 4 | -49.1% | -53.9% | 50% | 0% | -7.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -53.9% | 0% | -7.2% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -58.3% | 0% | -16.0% |
| 15% | -62.3% | 0% | -24.2% |
| 20% | -66.0% | 0% | -31.6% |