Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:35:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
70 0x7076…ebda crypto 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 204d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate67%8W / 4L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$289per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% +$1
sports 13% +$1
other 5% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 3 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 4 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
all 12 +0.2% -9.3% 67% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

204d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses8 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage204d
Avg bet$289
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $103 $103 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $101 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $103 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 22 $102 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in January? Jan 08 $101 $0 +0%
USDT depeg in 2025? Dec 31 $102 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Dec 22 $1,180 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $260 before 2026? Dec 22 $156 $0 +0%
Dogecoin all time high before 2026? Dec 18 $204 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 06 $996 $0 +0%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 06 $496 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on December 1? Dec 03 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $103 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $103 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $101 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $103 6d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $103 31d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $1 147d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $3 147d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $99 147d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in January? SELL No 99¢ $101 165d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in January? BUY No 99¢ $101 169d
USDT depeg in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $102 173d
USDT depeg in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $102 180d
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? SELL No 100¢ $60 182d
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? SELL No 100¢ $41 182d
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $101 183d
Will Solana reach $260 before 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 183d
Will Solana reach $260 before 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 185d
Will Solana reach $260 before 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 185d
Will Solana reach $260 before 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 185d
Will Solana reach $260 before 2026? BUY No 99¢ $102 185d
Dogecoin all time high before 2026? SELL No 100¢ $102 186d
Dogecoin all time high before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $102 187d
Dogecoin all time high before 2026? SELL No 100¢ $102 187d
Dogecoin all time high before 2026? BUY No 99¢ $102 189d
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? SELL No 98¢ $101 193d
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? BUY No 98¢ $101 193d
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? SELL No 98¢ $399 195d
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? SELL No 98¢ $100 195d
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? SELL No 98¢ $479 195d
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? BUY No 98¢ $978 195d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.64 · official $102.64 (match) · 39 history records