Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:15:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
70 0x7076…6adc sports 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$363 (+29%) realized +$357 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR85%break-even
Win rate85%11W / 2L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$297
other 19% +$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +85%
net ROI/market (all)+18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +31.0% +18.5% 85% 85% +17.3%
≤30d 13 +31.0% +18.5% 85% 85% +17.3%
≤90d 13 +31.0% +18.5% 85% 85% +17.3%
all 13 +31.0% +18.5% 85% 85% +17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.5% 85% +17.3%
10% +7.2% 77% +6.1%
15% -3.2% 62% -4.2%
20% -12.7% 31% -13.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +42% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$49 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.62 per $1 lost it wins $4.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized+$357
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses11 / 2
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage4d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 62¢ $57 $62 +$6 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Algeria vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? Jun 28 $115 +$85 +73%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $147 +$53 +36%
Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $153 +$47 +31%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $64 −$63 -99%
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $61 +$39 +65%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? Jun 27 $53 +$47 +90%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $78 −$34 -44%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $80 +$20 +24%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $72 +$28 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $178 +$22 +12%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? Jun 26 $56 +$44 +79%
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $68 +$32 +48%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 25 $67 +$33 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $58 1h
Algeria vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 57¢ $115 39h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $147 40h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $64 43h
Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 76¢ $153 2d
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 60¢ $61 2d
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 44¢ $43 2d
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 77¢ $78 2d
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $53 2d
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 80¢ $80 2d
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 71¢ $72 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 88¢ $89 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 89¢ $89 2d
Paraguay vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 55¢ $56 3d
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 67¢ $68 3d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 66¢ $67 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.50 · official $60.50 · 27 history records