Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:47:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x7074…7f32 world 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 274d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate36%13W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$3
politics 23% $0
other 18% +$1
economics 5% $0
sports 3% $0
culture 3% −$2
tech 3% $0
weather 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 17% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 17 +1.0% -8.6% 41% 6% -10.2%
≤90d 17 +1.0% -8.6% 41% 6% -10.2%
all 36 +0.6% -8.9% 36% 6% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 6% -9.9%
10% -17.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -25.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

274d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses13 / 23
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage274d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 56¢ 60¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $31 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $1 $0 +4%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $29 −$2 -6%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $32 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $22 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $29 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $29 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $31 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $29 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $63 −$3 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $5 +$1 +21%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $31 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $27 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 04 $4 $0 +11%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by October 31? Oct 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 04 $27 −$2 -8%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Oct 02 $47 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 02 $51 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Oct 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 30 $24 $0 -0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 30 $26 $0 +2%
Will the 2025 Ryder Cup end in a tie? Sep 30 $26 +$1 +2%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 28 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 28 $26 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 27 $25 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 59°F or below on September 2 Sep 27 $25 $0 -0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $27 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 65¢ $31 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $31 4h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 17h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 17h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 17h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $28 19h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $28 23h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 52¢ $28 28h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 55¢ $29 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $23 34h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $9 34h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $32 34h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $10 45h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $10 47h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 21d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 21d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $25 21d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $4 21d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $3 21d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $26 21d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $22 21d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $22 21d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $32 22d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $32 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $7 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $22 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $29 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $29 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.43 · official $27.36 (match) · 126 history records