trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | No | 1¢ | 1¢ | $1,400 | $1,300 | −$100 (-7%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 04 | $2,999,944 | +$14,056 | +0% |
| Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? | May 01 | $1,994,000 | +$6,000 | +0% |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | May 01 | $8,820,196 | +$10,476 | +0% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Apr 11 | $4,338,137 | +$6,344 | +0% |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Apr 09 | $6,050,085 | +$9,619 | +0% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee | Mar 18 | $1,339,454 | +$371 | +0% |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | Mar 05 | $1,018,403 | +$48,899 | +5% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | Mar 04 | $4,280,180 | +$9,079 | +0% |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | Feb 04 | $5,000,697 | +$11,869 | +0% |
| U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31? | Feb 04 | $1,194,103 | +$2,393 | +0% |
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? | Feb 02 | $699,300 | +$700 | +0% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Jan 29 | $1,000,000 | +$3,260 | +0% |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? | Jan 05 | $2,276,405 | +$7,181 | +0% |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026? | Jan 03 | $26,319 | +$79 | +0% |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? | Jan 03 | $1,000 | −$898 | -90% |
| Epstein blackmail evidence released in 2025? | Dec 30 | $507,645 | +$225,763 | +44% |
| Will Elon Musk be named in newly released Epstein files? | Dec 26 | $1,476,291 | +$6,408 | +0% |
| TikTok sale announced by March 31? | Dec 26 | $36,455 | +$36 | +0% |
| Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22? | Dec 26 | $280,613 | +$281 | +0% |
| TikTok sale announced in 2025? | Dec 26 | $285,660 | +$354,776 | +124% |
| Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 26? | Dec 26 | $721,023 | +$200,972 | +28% |
| Will Stephen Colbert be named in newly released Epstein files? | Dec 26 | $2,214,304 | +$5,777 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 1 | +0.5% | -9.1% | 100% | 0% | -9.1% |
| ≤90d | 6 | +0.2% | -9.3% | 100% | 0% | -9.4% |
| all | 22 | +5.2% | -4.8% | 95% | 14% | -7.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -4.8% | 14% | -7.7% |
| 10% | -13.9% | 14% | -16.6% |
| 15% ← realistic here | -22.2% | 9% | -24.6% |
| 20% | -29.8% | 5% | -32.0% |