Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:55:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
70 0x706e…537f politics 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$339per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$829now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 67% −$6
other 25% −$2
sports 3% $0
crypto 3% −$1
tech 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 9 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 15 -0.7% -10.2% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$829
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage94d
Avg bet$339
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $830 $829 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 27 $51 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 27 $1,087 −$1 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 27 $1,111 −$2 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 27 $1,085 −$3 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 18 $190 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 17 $189 −$1 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $185 $0 -0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $2 $0 -6%
Will Pete Hegseth enter Iran by June 30? Apr 16 $10 $0 -2%
Will Patrick Cantlay win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 29 $148 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 29 $26 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Mar 29 $66 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 25 $126 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Mar 25 $26 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 25 $69 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $232 1h
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,062 1h
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $51 17h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,086 17h
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 18h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,045 18h
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 18h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,109 18h
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 18h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 18h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,077 18h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $767 19h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $315 19h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 19h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 19h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $1,085 19h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $189 70d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $190 70d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $188 71d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $189 71d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $185 72d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $185 72d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 72d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 72d
Will Pete Hegseth enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $10 72d
Will Pete Hegseth enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 72d
Will Patrick Cantlay win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 99¢ $147 91d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $12 91d
Will Patrick Cantlay win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 99¢ $109 91d
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 98¢ $66 91d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $829.30 · official $829.30 (match) · 45 history records