Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:42:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x706c…bd2c crypto 367 markets active 14h ago coverage 48d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$387 (-3%) realized −$388 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate63%232W / 134L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day54.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days−$41
14 days+$46
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$935
other 3% +$196
sports 2% +$57
tech 1% −$4
weather 1% +$6
finance 0% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -16.2% -24.2% 47% 43% -11.4%
≤30d 78 -10.0% -18.6% 50% 40% -8.2%
≤90d 366 -7.5% -16.3% 63% 32% -13.7%
all 366 -7.5% -16.3% 63% 32% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.3% 32% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.3% 20% -21.9%
15% -31.6% 12% -29.5%
20% -38.3% 8% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$18 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$388
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses232 / 134
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)366 / 367
History coverage48d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day54.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 366 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $160 +$67 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $19 +$14 +74%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $51 −$19 -37%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $101 +$92 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $203 −$203 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $102 −$5 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 12 $76 +$14 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $209 +$41 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $105 −$13 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 12 $55 +$41 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 12 $209 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $105 −$7 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$17 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$10 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 11 $203 +$48 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 11 $12 +$12 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $102 +$29 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$18 +89%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $25 +$21 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 10 $19 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 10 $26 +$19 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 10 $154 +$63 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 10 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 10 $104 +$85 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$9 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 10 $7 +$7 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 09 $6 +$6 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 09 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 09 $51 +$31 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 09 $8 +$7 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $160 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $21 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $21 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $32 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $19 37h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Tampa Bay Rays 29¢ $32 37h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 44¢ $51 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $203 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $98 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $102 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $90 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $76 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $119 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $132 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $105 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $93 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $105 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $96 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $55 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $125 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $106 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $96 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $102 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $98 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $105 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $11 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.40 · official $6.40 (match) · 2866 history records