Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T14:49:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
70 0x7069…325b sports 779 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 74d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$32,397 (+13%) realized +$33,427 · open −$1,030
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%363W / 402L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$320per market
Trades / day42.9pace
Fees−$3,865est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1,663now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,735
7 days+$9,791
14 days+$11,272
30 days+$13,862
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$15,759
other 5% +$1,756
world 0% +$197
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +19.7% +8.3% 53% 53% +27.7%
≤30d 280 +15.4% +4.4% 49% 49% +2.5%
≤90d 765 +9.1% -1.3% 47% 47% -2.4%
all 765 +9.1% -1.3% 47% 47% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.3% 47% -2.4%
10% ← realistic here -10.8% 47% -11.8%
15% -19.4% 47% -20.3%
20% -27.3% 47% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +6% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$367 vs −$285 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$1,663
Realized+$33,427
Unrealized−$1,030
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses363 / 402
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$3,865
Open positions7
Markets (closed)765 / 779
History coverage74d ⚠
Avg bet$320
Trades / day42.9
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 765 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Acend 48¢ 48¢ $960 $950 −$10 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 22¢ $242 $335 +$94 (+39%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $248 $178 −$70 (-28%)
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Inner Circle Esports 47¢ 21¢ $329 $147 −$182 (-55%)
Set Handicap: Jodar (-2.5) vs Gill (+2.5) Jodar 45¢ 43¢ $49 $47 −$2 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner Inner Circle Esports 33¢ 0¢ $349 $5 −$344 (-98%)
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: ShindeN (-3.5) vs MIBR Academy (+3.5) MIBR Academy 47¢ 0¢ $516 $1 −$515 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 254 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre Jun 27 $246 −$242 -98%
Counter-Strike: eSuba vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 27 $8 +$10 +117%
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenge Jun 27 $412 −$30 -7%
Map Handicap: MIBR.F (-1.5) vs shimmer (+1.5) Jun 26 $480 +$519 +108%
Counter-Strike: shimmer vs MIBR fe (BO5) - Rainhas do Clutch FERJEE Pl Jun 26 $178 +$237 +133%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Jun 26 $944 −$939 -100%
France leading at halftime? Jun 26 $411 +$288 +70%
Map Handicap: CC.FE (-1.5) vs Atrix Esports (+1.5) Jun 26 $43 +$40 +92%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert Jun 26 $216 −$216 -100%
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn Jun 26 $715 +$883 +124%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite - Map 1 Winner Jun 26 $175 −$175 -100%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Jun 26 $597 −$591 -99%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $304 +$276 +90%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 6.5 Jun 25 $102 −$4 -4%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $138 −$136 -99%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $161 +$157 +98%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $350 +$349 +100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $199 +$301 +152%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $474 −$468 -99%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $220 −$220 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra Jun 25 $606 −$605 -100%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 25 $1,656 +$3,864 +233%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $234 −$233 -100%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Jun 25 $714 +$671 +94%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $274 −$274 -100%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 25 $271 −$266 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 25 $3,128 +$2,332 +75%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Vit Kopriva Jun 25 $250 +$450 +180%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $175 −$175 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $581 +$465 +80%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $156 +$244 +156%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 24 $373 −$371 -99%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $226 +$373 +165%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $353 −$352 -100%
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Jun 24 $316 +$283 +89%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $179 −$175 -98%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Jun 24 $328 −$323 -98%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FOKUS (-3.5) vs ECHO (+3.5) Jun 24 $312 +$281 +90%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 24 $414 +$385 +93%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $503 +$496 +99%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Keegan Smith vs Moez Echargui Jun 24 $237 −$237 -100%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $274 +$426 +156%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 24 $825 −$15 -2%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $15 +$15 +100%
Map Handicap: GL (-1.5) vs 9INE (+1.5) Jun 24 $253 −$252 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 23 $156 −$154 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $309 +$191 +62%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $818 +$680 +83%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $346 −$342 -99%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $168 +$332 +197%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner BUY Inner Circle Esports 33¢ $337 31m
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner BUY Inner Circle Esports 29¢ $14 32m
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner BUY Inner Circle Esports 29¢ $5 32m
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: ShindeN (-3.5) vs MIBR Academy (+3.5) BUY MIBR Academy 47¢ $188 40m
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: ShindeN (-3.5) vs MIBR Academy (+3.5) BUY MIBR Academy 47¢ $149 50m
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: ShindeN (-3.5) vs MIBR Academy (+3.5) BUY MIBR Academy 47¢ $27 50m
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: ShindeN (-3.5) vs MIBR Academy (+3.5) BUY MIBR Academy 47¢ $153 58m
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre BUY Bekzat Almakhan 39¢ $199 1h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre BUY Bekzat Almakhan 38¢ $3 1h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre BUY Bekzat Almakhan 38¢ $45 1h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Inner Circle Esports 47¢ $334 2h
Counter-Strike: eSuba vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs SELL MASQ 100¢ $18 2h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 48¢ $975 4h
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenge SELL Just Players 50¢ $382 4h
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenge BUY Just Players 53¢ $163 4h
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenge BUY Just Players 52¢ $249 4h
Counter-Strike: eSuba vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs BUY MASQ 46¢ $4 4h
Counter-Strike: eSuba vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs BUY MASQ 46¢ $4 4h
Set Handicap: Jodar (-2.5) vs Gill (+2.5) BUY Jodar 45¢ $42 4h
Set Handicap: Jodar (-2.5) vs Gill (+2.5) BUY Jodar 45¢ $3 4h
Set Handicap: Jodar (-2.5) vs Gill (+2.5) BUY Jodar 45¢ $2 4h
Set Handicap: Jodar (-2.5) vs Gill (+2.5) BUY Jodar 45¢ $2 4h
Map Handicap: MIBR.F (-1.5) vs shimmer (+1.5) SELL MIBR fe 100¢ $999 16h
Counter-Strike: shimmer vs MIBR fe (BO5) - Rainhas do Clutch FERJEE Pl SELL MIBR fe 100¢ $415 16h
Counter-Strike: shimmer vs MIBR fe (BO5) - Rainhas do Clutch FERJEE Pl BUY MIBR fe 40¢ $145 18h
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ BUY Yawara Esports 48¢ $112 18h
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ BUY Yawara Esports 48¢ $4 18h
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ BUY Yawara Esports 48¢ $27 18h
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ BUY Yawara Esports 48¢ $1 18h
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ BUY Yawara Esports 48¢ $4 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,663.14 · official $1,708.93 · 3500 history records