Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:00:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x7068…a0a6 other 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%2W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% $0
politics 33% −$1
crypto 14% $0
sports 10% $0
culture 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 18 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
all 21 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses2 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage100d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $81 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $81 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $81 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $81 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 27 $81 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 23 $81 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $81 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $81 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $81 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $81 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? Apr 18 $82 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $83 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $83 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 06 $83 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 04 $83 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 30 $83 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 26 $83 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 21 $83 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 15 $83 $0 +0%
Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 13 $83 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 09 $83 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $81 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $81 14h
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $81 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $81 11d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $81 15d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $81 16d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $81 19d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $81 19d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $81 20d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $81 21d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $81 25d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $81 25d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $81 29d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $81 29d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $81 34d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $81 34d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $81 36d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $81 36d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $81 40d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $81 41d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $82 60d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $82 60d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $82 63d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $83 64d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $83 67d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $83 67d
Netanyahu out by April 30? SELL No 99¢ $83 71d
Netanyahu out by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $83 72d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $83 74d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $83 74d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 61 history records