Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:40:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
70 0x7068…415e other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$30 (+1%) realized +$32 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$340per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$283now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$22
world 35% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.5% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 5 +1.1% -8.5% 40% 0% -8.2%
≤90d 5 +1.1% -8.5% 40% 0% -8.2%
all 5 +1.1% -8.5% 40% 0% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 0% -8.2%
10% -17.3% 0% -17.0%
15% -25.3% 0% -25.0%
20% -32.6% 0% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$1 · ×10.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.91 per $1 lost it wins $6.91
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$283
Realized+$32
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage14d
Avg bet$340
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Cuba economic deal by July 31, 2026? No 91¢ 90¢ $285 $283 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in June 2026? Jun 28 $306 −$2 -0%
Will there be no de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? Jun 26 $305 −$1 -0%
Will US annex any territory in 2026? Jun 26 $312 −$2 -1%
Aleksandar Pavlovic: 1+ goals Jun 14 $416 +$27 +6%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Jun 14 $416 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Cuba economic deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $285 1h
Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in June 2026? SELL No 92¢ $305 1h
Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in June 2026? BUY No 92¢ $306 4h
Will there be no de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $305 2d
Will there be no de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $305 2d
Will US annex any territory in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $310 2d
Will US annex any territory in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $312 2d
Aleksandar Pavlovic: 1+ goals BUY No 94¢ $416 14d
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $418 14d
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $416 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $283.26 · official $283.26 (match) · 11 history records