Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:17:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x7066…50e5 sports 756 markets active 0h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$13,389 (-6%) realized −$13,376 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate58%439W / 314L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$297per market
Trades / day18.4pace
Fees−$1,754est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$357now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$5,400
14 days−$3,969
30 days−$5,528
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$15,987
politics 1% +$999
other 1% +$200
world 0% −$7
finance 0% −$8
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -44.8% -50.1% 29% 29% -51.4%
≤30d 142 -19.1% -26.8% 49% 48% -22.8%
≤90d 753 -10.4% -19.0% 58% 56% -15.4%
all 753 -10.4% -19.0% 58% 56% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 56% -15.4%
10% -26.7% 43% -23.5%
15% -33.8% 28% -30.9%
20% -40.3% 18% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$190 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$357
Realized−$13,376
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses439 / 314
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$1,754
Open positions3
Markets (closed)753 / 756
History coverage76d
Avg bet$297
Trades / day18.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 753 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $200 $193 −$7 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $160 $163 +$3 (+2%)
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Over 14¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 106 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $302 +$88 +29%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $51 −$50 -99%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $15 −$15 -98%
América FC vs. Criciúma EC: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $562 −$557 -99%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $62 −$1 -2%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $1,367 −$1,359 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $1,339 +$197 +15%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $506 +$326 +64%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $799 +$218 +27%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $644 +$155 +24%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $925 −$288 -31%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $2,963 −$2,039 -69%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $102 −$21 -20%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $1,768 −$1,768 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $253 −$250 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $142 −$140 -98%
CF Universidad de Chile vs. O'Higgins FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $301 +$52 +17%
SC Recife vs. AC Goianiense: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $202 +$97 +48%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $334 +$212 +63%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $501 $0 +0%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $254 +$335 +132%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $246 +$67 +27%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $49 −$49 -99%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $202 +$80 +40%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $215 −$13 -6%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $101 +$58 +57%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $150 +$50 +33%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $753 +$100 +13%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $604 +$174 +29%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $30 −$29 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $146 +$61 +41%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $180 +$71 +40%
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $46 +$30 +65%
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $201 +$49 +24%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 +$60 +60%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $63 −$12 -20%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $17 +$11 +63%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $94 +$35 +38%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $98 +$120 +123%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 14¢ $10 15m
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 15¢ $21 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $51 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 77¢ $302 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $15 23h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $164 28h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $205 28h
América FC vs. Criciúma EC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $562 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $60 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $148 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $195 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $1,367 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $14 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 83¢ $12 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 88¢ $1,522 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 76¢ $1,328 3d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $832 3d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $506 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 26¢ $15 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,017 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 78¢ $799 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $799 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $644 3d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 39¢ $637 3d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $925 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 24¢ $924 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $2,963 4d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 20¢ $82 4d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 24¢ $102 4d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 66¢ $1,768 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $356.69 · official $356.69 (match) · 1647 history records