Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T18:47:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

70
0x7065…4926
sports · 22 markets active 2h ago
6.0score
+$10 +9%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$11 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$10
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses14 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)20 / 22
History coverage34d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 20 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Paper Rex 64¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Leviatán Esports 56¢ 54¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs T1 44¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage FULL SENSE 59¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Pacific Playoffs FULL SENSE 30¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs G2 Esports 73¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Team Heretics (BO5) - VCT EMEA Playoffs Team Vitality 52¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group S Jun 07 $4 −$4 -99%
Valorant: NRG vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs May 23 $5 $0 +8%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 May 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Team Heretics (BO5) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Pacific Playoffs May 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs May 17 $5 +$4 +73%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Team Heretics (BO5) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 16 $5 +$3 +65%
Valorant: Global Esports vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Pacific Playoffs May 16 $5 +$2 +31%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 16 $5 +$3 +65%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 15 $5 +$3 +62%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playo May 15 $5 +$3 +52%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage May 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs May 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 13 $5 +$2 +36%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $3 +$3 +114%
Valorant: Sentinels vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omega May 11 $5 +$2 +38%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 10 $5 +$6 +119%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO5) - VCT China Playoffs May 10 $5 +$3 +59%
Valorant: T1 vs Rex Regum Qeon (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs May 10 $3 +$1 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 64¢ $5 1h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 56¢ $5 1h
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group S BUY FULL SENSE 59¢ $4 6d
Valorant: NRG vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs BUY NRG 92¢ $5 26d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 BUY G2 Esports 73¢ $5 26d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Team Heretics (BO5) - VCT EMEA Playoffs BUY Team Vitality 52¢ $5 27d
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Pacific Playoffs BUY FULL SENSE 30¢ $5 27d
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs SELL 100 Thieves 100¢ $9 27d
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs BUY 100 Thieves 57¢ $5 27d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Team Heretics (BO5) - VCT EMEA Playoffs BUY Team Heretics 60¢ $5 28d
Valorant: Global Esports vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Pacific Playoffs BUY Paper Rex 76¢ $5 28d
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs BUY Team Heretics 60¢ $5 29d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs BUY Team Vitality 61¢ $5 29d
Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs BUY T1 44¢ $5 29d
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs BUY Global Esports 47¢ $5 29d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playo BUY G2 Esports 65¢ $5 29d
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage BUY Leviatán Esports 52¢ $5 29d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage SELL G2 100¢ $7 31d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage BUY G2 73¢ $5 31d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage SELL 9z 100¢ $7 33d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage BUY 9z 46¢ $3 33d
Valorant: Sentinels vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omega SELL NRG 100¢ $7 33d
Valorant: Sentinels vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omega BUY NRG 72¢ $5 33d
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs BUY Team Heretics 45¢ $5 34d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO5) - VCT China Playoffs SELL EDward Gaming 100¢ $8 34d
Valorant: T1 vs Rex Regum Qeon (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs SELL T1 100¢ $4 34d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO5) - VCT China Playoffs BUY EDward Gaming 62¢ $5 34d
Valorant: T1 vs Rex Regum Qeon (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs BUY T1 69¢ $3 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)+1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 14 -11.0% -19.5% 57% 50% -18.2%
≤90d 20 +12.7% +1.9% 70% 65% +0.7%
all 20 +12.7% +1.9% 70% 65% +0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.9% 65% +0.7%
10% -7.8% 65% -9.0%
15% -16.7% 60% -17.8%
20% -24.9% 45% -25.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.67 · official $9.67 (match) · 37 history records