Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:08:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
70 0x7064…c314 other 46 markets active 0h ago coverage 284d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate54%25W / 21L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% +$5
politics 22% −$1
other 19% +$2
sports 8% $0
culture 8% $0
economics 4% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 8 +1.7% -8.0% 75% 0% -8.0%
≤90d 8 +1.7% -8.0% 75% 0% -8.0%
all 46 +0.1% -9.4% 54% 0% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -8.9%
10% -18.1% 0% -17.6%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.6%
20% -33.2% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.21 per $1 lost it wins $4.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

284d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses25 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage284d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $41 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $41 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $37 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $38 +$2 +6%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $34 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $16 +$1 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 25 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 14 $13 $0 -2%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $2 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Oct 09 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will Joachim Trier win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 09 $1 $0 -9%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 09 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 08 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Oct 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 26 $24 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 25 $11 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 25 $5 $0 -4%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $6 $0 +8%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 23 $26 $0 +1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 16 $8 −$1 -8%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 15 $14 $0 -0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 15 $14 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 15 $46 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 15 $19 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Sep 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 14 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Sep 12 $14 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 11 $7 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 11 $7 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 11 $6 $0 +1%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 10 $32 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 09 $33 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Sep 09 $32 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 15? Sep 09 $31 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $41 10m
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $41 10m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $41 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $41 3h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $37 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $37 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $40 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $38 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 34¢ $16 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 34¢ $11 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 34¢ $3 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 33¢ $29 25d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $22 25d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $12 25d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $34 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $16 26d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $16 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $12 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $12 26d
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 96¢ $20 175d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 91¢ $13 186d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes $0 251d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes $0 251d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes $0 251d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes $1 251d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes $0 251d
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 91¢ $19 251d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes $0 251d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes $1 251d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes $0 251d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 228 history records