Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:07:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
70 0x7062…9f54 sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,169 (-53%) realized −$1,277 · open +$108
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$273per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$239now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$776
sports 30% −$303
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -10.3% -18.9% 67% 67% -61.9%
≤30d 6 -10.3% -18.9% 67% 67% -61.9%
≤90d 6 -10.3% -18.9% 67% 67% -61.9%
all 6 -10.3% -18.9% 67% 67% -61.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 67% -61.9%
10% -26.6% 33% -65.6%
15% -33.7% 33% -68.9%
20% -40.2% 17% -72.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$671 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$239
Realized−$1,277
Unrealized+$108
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage5d
Avg bet$273
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? No 51¢ 100¢ $112 $220 +$108 (+97%)
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? No 69¢ 68¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $412 +$82 +20%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Second half draw? Jun 27 $364 −$360 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $29 +$16 +55%
Norway vs. France: Second half draw? Jun 26 $17 +$7 +44%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $983 −$983 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $249 +$49 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $19 59m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 53¢ $81 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 46¢ $33 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 83¢ $412 29h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Second half draw? BUY No 66¢ $17 2d
Colombia vs. Portugal: Second half draw? BUY No 64¢ $347 2d
Norway vs. France: Second half draw? BUY No 69¢ $17 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 64¢ $29 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 49¢ $983 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $249 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $239.26 · official $239.26 (match) · 15 history records