Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:23:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
70 0x7061…e75e sports 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$70 (+8%) realized +$32 · open +$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day16.2pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$238now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$155
other 23% +$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +31.8% +19.2% 67% 50% +14.7%
≤30d 6 +31.8% +19.2% 67% 50% +14.7%
≤90d 6 +31.8% +19.2% 67% 50% +14.7%
all 6 +31.8% +19.2% 67% 50% +14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.2% 50% +14.7%
10% +7.8% 50% +3.7%
15% -2.6% 50% -6.3%
20% -12.2% 50% -15.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$42 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.29 per $1 lost it wins $3.29
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$238
Realized+$32
Unrealized+$38
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions3
Markets (closed)6 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day16.2
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 76¢ $100 $139 +$39 (+39%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 +$134 +132%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $110 +$83 +75%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$33 +65%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $101 −$8 -8%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $91 −$76 -84%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $264 +$27 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 21m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $51 21m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $236 31m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $101 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $102 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY 25¢ $10 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 92¢ $192 12h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 47¢ $8 13h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 13h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $51 20h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 67¢ $93 21h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 21h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL Senegal 10¢ $15 21h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 59¢ $165 21h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 59¢ $91 26h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $132 26h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 54¢ $126 26h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $132 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $237.59 · official $247.59 · 19 history records