Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:18:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x705c…8ac6 world 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 529d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate43%16W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$2
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 86% +$2
other 12% −$4
finance 2% $0
politics 1% −$5
sports 0% +$3
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.6% -10.0% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 23 +0.3% -9.3% 39% 4% -9.4%
≤90d 27 +0.4% -9.2% 37% 4% -9.4%
all 37 -4.9% -13.9% 43% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 5% -9.7%
10% -22.2% 3% -18.3%
15% -29.7% 3% -26.2%
20% -36.6% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

529d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses16 / 21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)37 / 39
History coverage529d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $40 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $40 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $87 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $2 $0 -6%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $2 $0 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $3 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $46 $0 -0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $40 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $532 −$2 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $103 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $44 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $112 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $39 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $37 −$2 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $25 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $53 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $44 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $4 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $11 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $36 +$5 +12%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $45 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 21 $35 +$2 +5%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 14 $230 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 12 $256 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 11 $256 −$1 -0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 06 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 23–30? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope? May 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Mar 21 $1 $0 -5%
Long Beach State vs. Hawai'i Mar 04 $2 +$2 +100%
Will Galatasaray beat AZ Alkmaar? Mar 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Malmo FF beat Twente? Feb 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Elon" or "Musk" during Fox News Oval Office interview? Feb 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Jan 22 $10 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $40 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 92¢ $40 8h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 92¢ $40 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $43 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $43 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $43 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $43 20h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 11¢ $5 36h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 11¢ $1 37h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 11¢ $4 37h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $18 45h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $22 45h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $40 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 4d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 9d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 11d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 11d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 11d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL No 71¢ $40 11d
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY No 71¢ $40 11d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $43 11d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $43 12d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $16 12d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $24 12d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $40 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $44 13d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $44 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.65 · official $39.18 (match) · 141 history records