Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:28:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x705b…a7b9 crypto 177 markets active 2h ago coverage 187d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$445 (-11%) realized −$492 · open +$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate34%59W / 116L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$297now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$307
7 days−$297
14 days−$297
30 days−$399
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 37% −$70
sports 25% +$52
other 17% −$165
politics 13% −$285
world 7% −$144
weather 1% +$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-29.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -66.4% -69.6% 18% 14% -32.1%
≤30d 125 -22.3% -29.7% 30% 26% -21.6%
≤90d 125 -22.3% -29.7% 30% 26% -21.6%
all 175 -22.5% -29.9% 34% 31% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.9% 31% -22.7%
10% -36.6% 27% -30.1%
15% -42.7% 23% -36.9%
20% -48.3% 20% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$15 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

187d coverage
Net worth$297
Realized−$492
Unrealized+$47
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses59 / 116
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)175 / 177
History coverage187d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 175 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 70¢ 84¢ $150 $181 +$31 (+21%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 62¢ $100 $116 +$16 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $102 +$51 +50%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $205 −$19 -10%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $193 +$203 +105%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $48 −$25 -52%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Trump say "Ukraine" during meeting with French President? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Trump say "Fake News" during meeting with French President? Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 15 $96 −$83 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $90 +$25 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 28 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Trump say "Deal" 15+ times during Cabinet meeting? May 27 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times during Cabinet meeting? May 27 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 25+ times during C May 27 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Trump say "Fraud" during Cabinet meeting? May 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 27 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 27 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 27 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 27 $51 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 26 $4 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 26 $21 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 26 $21 +$23 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 26 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 26 $21 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 26 $5 +$12 +230%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 26 $11 +$18 +173%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $153 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $102 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $153 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 50¢ $86 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $102 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 55¢ $99 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $102 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $102 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 BUY Over 15¢ $5 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $396 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $193 6h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $23 8h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 28¢ $23 8h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $48 9h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 28¢ $48 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $8 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $8 39h
Will Trump say "Fake News" during meeting with French President? BUY Yes 53¢ $46 39h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $13 39h
Will Trump say "Ukraine" during meeting with French President? BUY Yes 68¢ $51 39h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 9¢ $20 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 0 Switzerland? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 15¢ $46 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $115 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 75¢ $90 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $297.11 · official $300.88 · 384 history records