Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:37:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
70 0x7058…75d7 sports 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$223 (+33%) realized +$223 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$77
7 days+$108
14 days+$91
30 days+$169
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% +$130
other 41% +$41
world 13% +$7
crypto 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +35.3% +22.4% 60% 60% +14.7%
≤30d 13 +29.7% +17.4% 54% 54% +14.6%
≤90d 13 +29.7% +17.4% 54% 54% +14.6%
all 13 +29.7% +17.4% 54% 54% +14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.4% 54% +14.6%
10% +6.1% 54% +3.6%
15% -4.1% 38% -6.4%
20% -13.5% 38% -15.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +45% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$25 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.14 per $1 lost it wins $2.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$223
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage24d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 48¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 40¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 17 $26 +$25 +97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $42 +$11 +27%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $52 +$40 +78%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 15 $74 −$74 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $24 +$52 +214%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 13 $42 +$89 +209%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $42 −$2 -4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $52 +$16 +31%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $62 −$18 -29%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 01 $53 −$5 -10%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $116 +$84 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $23 21m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $21 26m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 82¢ $51 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $42 19h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $92 19h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $52 24h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 38¢ $26 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $24 2d
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $131 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $40 3d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 62¢ $41 3d
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $42 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $74 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $69 5d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 58¢ $42 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $52 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $11 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? BUY No $10 13d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 64¢ $47 16d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 64¢ $53 16d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 55¢ $116 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $31 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $33 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $31 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.53 · official $41.53 (match) · 30 history records