Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:09:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

70 0x7053…013a other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 47d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$887 (-48%) realized −$617 · open −$270

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -57% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -63% what you keep after slip

Net edge-63%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$457per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$299now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 47d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-61.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-50.5%	-55.2%	0%	0%	-55.2%
≤30d	2	-57.1%	-61.2%	0%	0%	-57.6%
≤90d	2	-57.1%	-61.2%	0%	0%	-57.6%
all	2	-57.1%	-61.2%	0%	0%	-57.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-61.2%	0%	-57.6%
10%	-64.9%	0%	-61.7%
15%	-68.3%	0%	-65.4%
20%	-71.4%	0%	-68.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -53% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -57% · $-wt -53% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

— vs −$330 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage

Net worth$299

Realized−$617

Unrealized−$270

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 2

Open positions2

Markets (closed)2 / 4

History coverage47d

Avg bet$457

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$475	$238	−$238 (-50%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	10¢	6¢	$94	$61	−$33 (-35%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 21	$994	−$502	-50%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	Jun 07	$249	−$159	-64%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$157	2h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$89	2h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$243	2h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	0¢	$492	2h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$1	4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	10¢	$97	13d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	SELL Yes	2¢	$90	13d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$511	16d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$482	16d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	BUY Yes	4¢	$249	47d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $298.77 · official $298.77 (match) · 26 history records