Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:48:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x704b…532d crypto 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 556d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$132 (-4%) realized −$132 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate75%42W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$4
14 days−$12
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% +$25
other 12% −$105
world 10% −$63
politics 6% +$3
sports 4% +$4
tech 2% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -8.9% -17.6% 75% 50% -6.6%
≤30d 8 -20.3% -27.9% 62% 38% -0.8%
≤90d 14 -24.6% -31.8% 64% 21% -7.8%
all 56 -10.6% -19.1% 75% 9% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 9% -13.1%
10% -26.9% 5% -21.4%
15% -33.9% 4% -29.0%
20% -40.4% 2% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$16 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

556d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$132
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses42 / 14
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage556d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $90 +$4 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 +$4 +17%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $51 +$37 +73%
Will Solana reach $170 in May? May 24 $70 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 09 $84 $0 +0%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Pistons vs. Wizards Apr 21 $7 +$1 +8%
Pacers vs. Knicks Apr 21 $7 +$1 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 21 $79 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in February? Mar 17 $93 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 25 $92 $0 +0%
Timberwolves vs. Jazz Jan 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? Jan 20 $101 +$1 +1%
Pistons vs. Bucks Dec 06 $10 +$3 +28%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in November? Dec 06 $88 $0 +0%
Warriors vs. Pacers Nov 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in October? Nov 01 $103 +$5 +5%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September? Oct 13 $61 +$1 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $5800 in August? Sep 18 $61 +$1 +1%
Megaquake before August? Aug 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.38 in July? Aug 27 $60 +$1 +1%
Megaquake in June? Jul 11 $56 +$2 +4%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jul 11 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in May? Jun 10 $155 +$1 +1%
Will Solana reach $300 in April? May 09 $154 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000.00 by March 31? Apr 13 $153 +$2 +1%
Will Solana hit $350 by February 28 2025? Mar 10 $70 +$1 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $4000 by February 28 2025? Mar 10 $80 +$1 +1%
Megaquake in February? Feb 10 $50 +$1 +2%
Ethereum above $3,400 on February 7? Feb 08 $50 +$1 +3%
Ethereum all time high by January 31? Feb 04 $62 +$1 +1%
Megaquake in January? Feb 04 $70 +$4 +5%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Januar Jan 27 $10 +$2 +18%
Ethereum above $3,300 on January 17? Jan 24 $61 +$1 +1%
Israel x Egypt sever diplomatic relations before February? Jan 15 $126 −$65 -52%
Ukraine agrees to resume Russian natural gas transit in January? Jan 11 $38 $0 -0%
Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration? Jan 11 $93 $0 +0%
Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025? Jan 09 $34 $0 -1%
Will China unban Bitcoin by March 31? Jan 09 $21 $0 +2%
Bitcoin above $94,000 on January 3? Jan 05 $24 +$1 +2%
Dogecoin above $0.31 on January 3? Jan 05 $89 +$1 +1%
Ethereum all time high in 2024? Jan 03 $79 +$1 +2%
No Ethereum all time high in 2024? Jan 03 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Biden finish his term? Dec 25 $59 $0 +1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Dec 25 $57 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $94 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $90 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $6 5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 83¢ $29 5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $25 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $8 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $8 7d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 57¢ $51 29d
Will Solana reach $170 in May? SELL No 100¢ $70 29d
Will Solana reach $170 in May? BUY No 100¢ $70 44d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 65¢ $8 44d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $84 62d
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 85¢ $10 62d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $79 97d
Pacers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 91¢ $7 97d
Pistons vs. Wizards BUY Pistons 93¢ $7 97d
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in February? BUY No 100¢ $93 117d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $92 153d
Timberwolves vs. Jazz BUY Timberwolves 84¢ $10 153d
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? BUY No 99¢ $101 198d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in November? BUY No 100¢ $88 212d
Pistons vs. Bucks BUY Pistons 78¢ $10 212d
Warriors vs. Pacers BUY Warriors 82¢ $10 233d
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in October? BUY No 96¢ $103 252d
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September? BUY No 98¢ $61 277d
Will Ethereum reach $5800 in August? BUY No 99¢ $61 299d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.38 in July? BUY No 99¢ $60 342d
Megaquake before August? BUY No 96¢ $100 346d
Megaquake in June? BUY No 96¢ $56 377d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 107 history records