Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:44:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x7046…61b6 other 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 31L
Whale WR12%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$436per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$8
politics 41% −$7
sports 6% +$1
culture 6% −$1
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 32 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 32 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 12% (≥$850) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×2.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)12%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage86d
Avg bet$436
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 24? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $1,235 −$2 -0%
Will Dominik Szoboszlai win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 24 $11 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $1,282 −$2 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $69 $0 -0%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Jun 23 $69 $0 -0%
Will Hubert Hurkacz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 23 $39 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $1,198 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 22 $62 $0 -0%
Will Edin Džeko be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $1,279 −$1 -0%
Will Rafael Leao be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $1,352 −$1 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 22 $1,255 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 15 $55 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? May 15 $22 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 13 $43 $0 -0%
Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations? May 13 $30 $0 -0%
Will Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? May 13 $882 +$1 +0%
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $763 −$1 -0%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 12 $783 −$1 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma May 12 $55 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $848 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 12 $808 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 11 $61 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 11 $22 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $843 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $850 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 03 $136 $0 -0%
Will Zach Johnson win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 03 $57 $0 -0%
Will Won Hee-ryong win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi Apr 03 $27 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 30 $63 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 30 $28 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 30 $71 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,233 3m
Will Dominik Szoboszlai win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $11 12m
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $17 19m
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,198 47m
Will Dominik Szoboszlai win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $11 53m
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,003 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $46 1h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $37 1h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $277 1h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,282 1h
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $69 19h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $69 19h
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $16 19h
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $25 19h
Will Hubert Hurkacz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $39 19h
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $28 20h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $33 20h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $850 20h
Will Hubert Hurkacz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $39 20h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $347 20h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $36 20h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,198 21h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $62 39h
Will Edin Džeko be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,277 39h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $28 39h
Will Edin Džeko be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,256 40h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $11 40h
Will Rafael Leao be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,351 40h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $23 40h
Will Edin Džeko be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $23 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.71 · official $62.71 (match) · 103 history records