Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:26:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x7042…c72b sports 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,194 (+3%) realized +$2,691 · open −$497
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%15W / 30L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,506per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$826est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10,182
7 days+$13,413
14 days+$13,404
30 days+$1,440
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$8,486
other 36% +$9,430
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +0.4% -9.2% 37% 37% +17.8%
≤30d 45 -19.1% -26.8% 33% 33% -6.7%
≤90d 45 -19.1% -26.8% 33% 33% -6.7%
all 45 -19.1% -26.8% 33% 33% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.8% 33% -6.7%
10% -33.8% 33% -15.6%
15% -40.2% 31% -23.8%
20% -46.1% 31% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$2,035) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -39% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2,479 vs −$1,192 · ×2.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$2,691
Unrealized−$497
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses15 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$826
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 48
History coverage22d
Avg bet$1,506
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $500 $3 −$497 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $5,094 +$8,419 +165%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,408 −$1,388 -99%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 18 $1,021 −$1,000 -98%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $510 −$500 -98%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $509 −$500 -98%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Quinn (+1.5) Jun 18 $2,027 −$2,000 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $6,449 +$9,006 +140%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,433 −$1,397 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $2,739 −$1,311 -48%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,014 +$853 +84%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $503 −$493 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $2,200 −$1,239 -56%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $360 −$168 -47%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1,014 −$1,000 -99%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $3,175 −$3,151 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $1,016 +$1,183 +116%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $3,031 −$3,000 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,330 −$2,300 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2,140 +$3,530 +165%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3,033 +$1,680 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2,035 +$2,678 +132%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $512 −$54 -10%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,025 +$4,525 +442%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Alicia Dudeney vs Yulia Putintseva Jun 13 $452 −$445 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $216 +$236 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2,032 +$2,180 +107%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $953 −$931 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $11 −$10 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 09 $9 +$2 +24%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $2,405 −$2,362 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul Jun 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev Jun 01 $205 −$205 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 01 $992 −$992 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 01 $715 −$715 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev Jun 01 $1,822 −$1,822 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 01 $4,072 −$4,072 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 01 $2,981 −$2,981 -100%
Heilbronn: Pavel Kotov vs Guy Den Ouden Jun 01 $306 −$300 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider Jun 01 $1,013 −$1,000 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 01 $612 +$1,053 +172%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda Jun 01 $410 −$400 -98%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Hong Kong, China vs Bahrain Jun 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1,477 +$1,268 +86%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana May 30 $907 +$572 +63%
Roland Garros ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Frances Tiafoe May 28 $4 +$3 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $514 1h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) AND Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY 54¢ $5,069 2h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 37¢ $5,094 5h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $1,408 10h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 31¢ $1,021 10h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 34¢ $510 10h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 43¢ $509 10h
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Quinn (+1.5) BUY Shelton 55¢ $2,027 13h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $6,449 25h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in BUY 11¢ $513 26h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $1,433 26h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 18¢ $1,429 26h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 33¢ $2,739 27h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,867 28h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 53¢ $1,014 28h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $503 4d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 29¢ $666 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $191 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 54¢ $1,014 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $360 4d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 14¢ $890 4d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 24¢ $1,534 4d
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 75¢ $3,121 4d
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 76¢ $54 4d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz SELL Ben Shelton 99¢ $2,199 4d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 45¢ $1,016 4d
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili BUY Lorenzo Sonego 65¢ $3,031 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $2,330 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $5,670 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $4,713 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.12 · official $5,003.12 · 76 history records