Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:58:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

70
0x7041…5c73
crypto · 630 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$104 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$101 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8
Realized+$101
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses380 / 248
Open positions2
Markets (closed)628 / 630
History coverage3d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day993.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 628 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$101
14 days+$101
30 days+$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Down 47¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+113%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Down 53¢ 52¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$4 +400%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $13 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$5 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$5 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$4 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $22 −$5 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$8 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $12 +$8 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$6 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$6 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $12 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $13 +$7 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $12 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$5 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$4 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $13 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $24 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $34 −$6 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$5 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $30 −$10 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$7 +211%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 628 +2.9% -6.9% 61% 55% -8.2%
≤30d 628 +2.9% -6.9% 61% 55% -8.2%
≤90d 628 +2.9% -6.9% 61% 55% -8.2%
all 628 +2.9% -6.9% 61% 55% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover993.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.9% 55% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here -15.8% 43% -17.0%
15% -23.9% 29% -25.0%
20% -31.4% 17% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.68 · official $6.91 (match) · 3500 history records