Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:39:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
70 0x7040…81fa sports 303 markets active 0h ago coverage 23d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 23d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (150 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$31,972 (+76%) realized +$32,804 · open −$832
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +123% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +71% what you keep after slip
Net edge+71%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate52%42W / 39L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day149.6pace
Fees−$125est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$6,678now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 23d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$4,876
sports 15% −$19
crypto 1% +$82
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (150 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+101.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +189.6% +162.0% 50% 33% +3.5%
≤30d 81 +122.7% +101.5% 52% 41% +14.3%
≤90d 81 +122.7% +101.5% 52% 41% +14.3%
all 81 +122.7% +101.5% 52% 41% +14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover149.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +101.5% 41% +14.3%
10% ← realistic here +82.2% 36% +3.4%
15% +64.6% 32% -6.6%
20% +48.4% 28% -15.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +123% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +72% → late +172% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$230 vs −$102 · ×2.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.43 per $1 lost it wins $2.43
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$6,678
Realized+$32,804
Unrealized−$832
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses42 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$125
Open positions18
Markets (closed)81 / 303
History coverage23d ⚠
Avg bet$139
Trades / day149.6
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $1,772 $1,742 −$30 (-2%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 56¢ $1,781 $1,695 −$86 (-5%)
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 60¢ $1,582 $1,650 +$68 (+4%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $660 $655 −$5 (-1%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $300 $425 +$125 (+42%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 10¢ 17¢ $231 $403 +$172 (+75%)
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $186 $40 −$145 (-78%)
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $230 $35 −$195 (-85%)
Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $48 $13 −$35 (-73%)
Will Desire Doue be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $67 $11 −$56 (-84%)
Will Romelu Lukaku be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $40 $5 −$35 (-87%)
Will Memphis Depay be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-56%)
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $119 $2 −$118 (-99%)
Will Cătălin Drulă be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-95%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 67¢ 0¢ $480 $0 −$480 (-100%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+13%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 24¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+60%)
Will Ivan Perišić be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid reach $66 by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $56 −$67 -120%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Julián Álvarez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $108 −$10 -9%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $196 −$7 -4%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Jun 19 $3 +$164 +5297%
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $206 −$4 -2%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $649 +$361 +56%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $204 −$200 -98%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $182 +$239 +132%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $238 +$479 +201%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw Jun 18 $10 +$146 +1420%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,011 −$57 -6%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 17 $79 +$1,209 +1523%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 17 $84 −$47 -56%
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $3,004 +$34 +1%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $297 −$214 -72%
Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $46 +$1 +3%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $299 +$67 +23%
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1,057 +$3 +0%
Will Viktor Gyökeres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $46 +$3 +7%
Will Donyell Malen be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $3 $0 +7%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Brazil vs. Morocco Jun 15 $10 +$393 +3822%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $95 +$2 +2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $224 −$22 -10%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $374 −$24 -6%
Will The MongolZ qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 15 $17 +$9 +52%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $27 −$338 -1232%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $934 −$1,097 -118%
Will Legacy qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $51 +$9 +17%
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $338 +$36 +11%
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $352 −$74 -21%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $148 −$31 -21%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $138 −$136 -98%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $309 +$953 +309%
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $16 −$6 -37%
Will FUT qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 13 $241 −$106 -44%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals Jun 11 $130 +$138 +107%
Will B8 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $92 +$83 +90%
Will MOUZ qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 11 $18 +$4 +22%
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $90 +$114 +126%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $2,776 −$48 -2%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $232 +$519 +224%
Will Aurora qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 10 $285 −$280 -98%
Will Monte qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 10 $255 −$14 -5%
Will paiN qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 09 $470 +$25 +5%
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $41 +$13 +32%
Will M80 qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 08 $271 +$8 +3%
Will G2 qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 08 $67 −$44 -65%
Will MIBR qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $438 +$180 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 22m
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 22m
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $9 52m
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 52m
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 52m
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 52m
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 52m
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 1h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $18 1h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 1h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND Argentina vs. Austr BUY 17¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 74¢ $403 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 46¢ $20 2h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $18 2h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 44¢ $61 2h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? AND Will United States win on 202 BUY 5¢ $10 3h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? AND Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end BUY 4¢ $10 3h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? AND Will Algeria vs. A BUY 3¢ $5 3h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Algeria vs. Austria end in BUY 3¢ $5 3h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in BUY 2¢ $5 3h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? A BUY 2¢ $5 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND United States vs. A BUY 18¢ $26 3h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 3h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $76 4h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? AND Will Netherlands vs. Swede BUY 3¢ $10 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,677.73 · official $8,005.97 · 3500 history records