Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:13:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
70 0x7040…a38b crypto 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$130 (+9%) realized +$130 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%17W / 14L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$160
7 days+$160
14 days+$160
30 days+$160
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% +$165
finance 16% +$41
world 11% +$80
politics 3% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -2.7% -11.9% 54% 43% +4.5%
≤30d 28 -2.7% -11.9% 54% 43% +4.5%
≤90d 29 -1.8% -11.2% 55% 45% +5.7%
all 31 +0.6% -8.9% 55% 45% +9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 45% +9.0%
10% -17.7% 35% -1.4%
15% -25.6% 29% -11.0%
20% -32.9% 29% -19.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late +30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$12 · ×2.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.81 per $1 lost it wins $2.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$130
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses17 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage164d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 23 $129 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 23 $104 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 23 $77 +$9 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$65 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $32 +$15 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 23 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$13 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $52 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 23 $105 +$35 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 23 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $31 +$21 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$65 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$40 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 23 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 23 $32 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 23 $32 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 23 $52 −$14 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 23 $31 +$17 +53%
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electio Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 22? Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +3%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 21 $50 +$8 +17%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 21? Apr 21 $234 +$53 +23%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Jan 16 $108 +$82 +76%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 16 $58 −$2 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $124 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $39 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $139 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $49 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 92 history records