Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:23:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x703e…8bad crypto 79 markets active 0h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$130 (-5%) realized +$39 · open −$169
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate38%28W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$131now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$331
7 days+$188
14 days+$188
30 days+$188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$329
sports 6% +$139
other 1% +$139
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +6.4% -3.8% 42% 38% +2.5%
≤30d 50 +6.4% -3.8% 42% 38% +2.5%
≤90d 74 -1.8% -11.1% 38% 35% -3.3%
all 74 -1.8% -11.1% 38% 35% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 35% -3.3%
10% -19.6% 35% -12.5%
15% -27.4% 30% -21.0%
20% -34.5% 27% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$14 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$131
Realized+$39
Unrealized−$169
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses28 / 46
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions5
Markets (closed)74 / 79
History coverage66d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Down 66¢ 68¢ $125 $128 +$3 (+2%)
Michael Olise: 4+ shots Yes 45¢ 10¢ $15 $3 −$12 (-78%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $77 +$33 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $163 +$51 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $102 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $76 +$18 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$10 +40%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $92 +$170 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $54 +$37 +69%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $15 +$151 +980%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $38 −$36 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $42 −$15 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $53 −$7 -13%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $51 −$4 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $83 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $22 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $47 −$5 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $36 +$30 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$24 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $115 −$60 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $56 −$52 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $126 +$36 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $83 −$5 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $125 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $18 −$17 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$31 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$10 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $21 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$15 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$10 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $42 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$14 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$10 +94%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $110 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $116 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $98 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $11 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $130 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $94 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $36 28m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $131.18 · official $151.98 · 305 history records