Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:12:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x703d…68f5 crypto 68 markets active 0h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$61 (-30%) realized −$54 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate48%25W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$47
world 7% −$3
politics 7% −$5
finance 5% −$10
other 4% −$3
economics 0% −$1
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-41.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -6.7% -15.6% 69% 42% -15.4%
≤30d 52 -35.0% -41.2% 48% 31% -43.2%
≤90d 52 -35.0% -41.2% 48% 31% -43.2%
all 52 -35.0% -41.2% 48% 31% -43.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.2% 31% -43.2%
10% -46.8% 23% -48.6%
15% -52.0% 15% -53.6%
20% -56.7% 6% -58.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -63% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$54
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses25 / 27
Open positions16
Markets (closed)52 / 68
History coverage29d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 76¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the June meeting? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-39%)
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-46%)
Will Elon Musk / X (Twitter) acquire TikTok? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-64%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-70%)
Will the Bank of Mexico announce an increase at the June meeting? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-85%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Yes 52¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$4 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 20 $1 $0 +42%
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview? May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Canada recession before 2027? May 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 18 $1 $0 +29%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 18 $1 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 18 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 18 $15 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 18 $7 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 3 - 2 Burnley FC? May 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? May 18 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 18? May 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 18? May 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 17 $2 $0 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 17 $2 +$1 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 8m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? BUY No 0¢ $1 11m
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $1 24m
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 26m
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $7 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 15h
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 96¢ $1 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.34 · official $25.34 (match) · 135 history records