Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:38:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x7038…baea sports 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$297 (-24%) realized −$298 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate71%15W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$161now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$92
30 days−$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$357
other 21% +$60
world 3% +$2
weather 1% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -35.5% -41.7% 50% 50% -23.8%
≤90d 14 -18.2% -26.0% 64% 43% -37.4%
all 21 -16.6% -24.5% 71% 29% -35.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.5% 29% -35.1%
10% -31.8% 24% -41.3%
15% -38.3% 14% -47.0%
20% -44.4% 5% -52.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$77 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$161
Realized−$298
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses15 / 6
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage178d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Uruguay 66¢ 66¢ $160 $161 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $205 +$60 +29%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $111 +$32 +29%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 04 $104 −$103 -99%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $66 −$65 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $43 +$19 +44%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Play May 13 $139 −$138 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 13 $30 +$20 +67%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? May 06 $11 +$1 +7%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? May 06 $11 +$2 +19%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in Febru May 06 $14 $0 +2%
Will the ECB announce no change at the March 2026 meeting? May 06 $15 $0 +1%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers May 06 $61 +$29 +48%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 28 $91 −$88 -98%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 17 $66 −$64 -98%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by February 28? Mar 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 05 $12 $0 +2%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 13, 2026 (ET)? Mar 05 $25 $0 +2%
Clavicular in jail by January 31? Feb 07 $15 $0 +2%
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? Feb 07 $16 $0 +1%
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? Jan 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Solana dip to $70 before 2026? Jan 08 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 66¢ $27 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 66¢ $135 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $8 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $198 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 77¢ $111 16d
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 61¢ $104 22d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY PARIVISION 72¢ $66 29d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 69¢ $43 36d
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Play BUY 100 Thieves 76¢ $139 44d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 59¢ $30 51d
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs BUY Trail Blazers 17¢ $91 59d
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers BUY Spurs 67¢ $61 62d
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs BUY Trail Blazers 18¢ $66 69d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? BUY No 94¢ $11 95d
Will the ECB announce no change at the March 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 99¢ $15 102d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in Febru BUY No 98¢ $14 108d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 84¢ $11 113d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by February 28? BUY No 100¢ $8 121d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 13, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 98¢ $25 134d
Will DeepSeek have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 98¢ $12 139d
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? BUY Yes $1 153d
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? BUY No 99¢ $16 160d
Clavicular in jail by January 31? BUY No 98¢ $15 169d
Will Solana dip to $70 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 178d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $161.10 · official $161.10 (match) · 40 history records