Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:27:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
70 0x7037…9575 world 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 312d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate41%13W / 19L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$1
world 32% −$1
culture 12% +$1
politics 7% +$1
sports 7% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.8% -10.2% 0% 0% -11.3%
≤30d 13 -0.4% -9.9% 23% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 13 -0.4% -9.9% 23% 0% -10.1%
all 32 +0.6% -9.0% 41% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 3% -9.5%
10% -17.7% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.6% 0% -26.0%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

312d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses13 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage312d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $34 −$1 -2%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $32 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $32 −$1 -4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $28 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $9 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $54 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $2 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 31 $33 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $32 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Dec 26 $48 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Nov 27 $53 $0 +0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in US? Aug 17 $7 +$1 +16%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? Aug 15 $17 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 15 $15 $0 +2%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 15 $39 +$1 +3%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 15 $53 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Aug 14 $53 $0 -0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 14 $6 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 14 $53 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31? Aug 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 13 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 13 $53 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025? Aug 11 $5 $0 +6%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 11 $48 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 11 $53 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $30 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $34 4h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $34 7h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 19h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 19h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 24h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 33h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $23 15d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $9 15d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $24 15d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $7 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $31 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 54¢ $32 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $24 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $4 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $9 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $19 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $22 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $22 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $26 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $6 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $32 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $33 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $28 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.21 · official $30.21 (match) · 96 history records