Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:20:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x7026…eda7 other 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2,133 (-22%) realized −$2,133 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate26%6W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$426per market
Trades / day14.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,110
7 days−$1,520
14 days−$1,671
30 days−$2,185
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% −$1,800
crypto 24% −$628
other 15% −$318
sports 3% +$562
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +16.9% +5.7% 18% 18% -28.7%
≤30d 23 -7.0% -15.9% 26% 17% -29.7%
≤90d 23 -7.0% -15.9% 26% 17% -29.7%
all 23 -7.0% -15.9% 26% 17% -29.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 17% -29.7%
10% -23.9% 17% -36.4%
15% -31.3% 9% -42.6%
20% -38.0% 4% -48.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$162 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,133
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses6 / 17
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage18d
Avg bet$426
Trades / day14.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $153 +$71 +46%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 −$48 -48%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$64 -63%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$42 -41%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$491 +479%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $917 −$128 -14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $4,162 −$1,307 -31%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $84 −$84 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $350 −$15 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1,035 −$395 -38%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $50 −$1 -1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1,901 −$138 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $11 −$10 -92%
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $30 −$1 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $30 −$1 -2%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $10 −$2 -21%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $10 +$3 +32%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $485 −$480 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $20 +$5 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $82 +$6 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $10 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $41 −$36 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $130 16m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 43¢ $53 58m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 37¢ $93 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 80¢ $101 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 12¢ $38 6h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 7h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $60 7h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 8h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $594 9h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 10h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 79¢ $790 10h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 11h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $366 11h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $401 11h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $161 24h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No $0 24h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $50 33h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $100 33h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $10 33h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $50 33h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $100 35h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $100 36h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $100 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $100 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $100 39h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $100 42h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $100 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 263 history records