Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:57:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

70
0x7023…b538
other · 213 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
+$58 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$133 · open −$83
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$334
Realized+$133
Unrealized−$83
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses104 / 97
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions12
Markets (closed)201 / 213
History coverage153d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 12 History 201 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 13¢ 9¢ $252 $186 −$66 (-26%)
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $32 $28 −$4 (-12%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 7¢ 12¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+79%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Gen.G 39¢ 44¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+12%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+46%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 16¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+35%)
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $27 $13 −$14 (-52%)
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-49%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-58%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Karmine Corp 41¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$30 +149%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 08 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? May 06 $32 −$30 -94%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 29 $405 +$60 +15%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $51 +$70 +138%
Will Grégory Doucet win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election? Apr 16 $8 +$84 +997%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 16 $50 +$43 +86%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Apr 16 $82 +$32 +39%
Will Franck Allisio win the Marseille mayor election? Apr 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election? Apr 16 $332 −$332 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 6, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 6, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Mar 18 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-03-07? Mar 08 $50 +$66 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Mar 06 $15 +$23 +150%
Manchester United FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 3.5 Mar 06 $15 $0 +3%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,040 (HIGH) in February 2026? Mar 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Leeds United FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Mar 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Solana reach $120 in February? Mar 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Real Madrid CF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 4.5 Mar 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-02-28? Mar 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Mar 06 $22 −$22 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Versus Playoffs Mar 06 $16 $0 +0%
Game Handicap: G2 (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) Mar 02 $10 +$4 +43%
Le Havre AC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 Mar 01 $15 +$11 +75%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Versus Playoffs Feb 28 $20 $0 -0%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on February 25? Feb 26 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25? Feb 26 $50 +$35 +70%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-24? Feb 25 $50 +$20 +41%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Club Brugge KV: O/U 4.5 Feb 25 $20 +$60 +300%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-02-17? Feb 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-17? Feb 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-02-21? Feb 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-21? Feb 23 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Feb 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Stade de Reims vs. Amiens SC end in a draw? Feb 23 $10 +$8 +79%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5 Feb 23 $20 +$55 +275%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-02-22? Feb 23 $50 +$22 +45%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-22? Feb 23 $50 +$25 +49%
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 23 $50 +$29 +59%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Feb 20 $14 −$8 -59%
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 6 be betwee Feb 20 $9 +$1 +9%
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on February 18? Feb 19 $1,049 +$33 +3%
Will Levante UD win on 2025-12-14? Feb 18 $20 −$19 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 39% +$220
crypto 26% −$95
sports 15% +$194
politics 6% −$262
world 6% −$1
finance 6% +$16
culture 1% +$3
tech 1% −$20
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 39¢ $15 1h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 38¢ $14 11h
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 12h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 12h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 12h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 13h
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Karmine Corp 35¢ $20 6d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Karmine Corp 50¢ $20 6d
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes 13¢ $16 25d
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $25 36d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? BUY Yes 3¢ $11 38d
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 38d
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 38d
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 38d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 42d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $0 45d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? SELL No 93¢ $465 45d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY No 81¢ $405 46d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? SELL Yes 69¢ $22 46d
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 10¢ $35 46d
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 46d
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 46d
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 13¢ $12 46d
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 46d
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 46d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 46d
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 50d
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 51d
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 51d
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +24.4% +12.6% 50% 50% -23.9%
≤30d 2 +24.4% +12.6% 50% 50% -23.9%
≤90d 19 +6.5% -3.7% 32% 32% -26.7%
all 201 +13.2% +2.4% 52% 36% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.4% 36% -8.2%
10% -7.4% 33% -17.0%
15% -16.3% 28% -25.0%
20% -24.5% 25% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $334.10 · official $334.57 (match) · 1121 history records