Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:22:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x7020…d655 sports 77 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$416 (+6%) realized +$502 · open −$86
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate42%32W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$317now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$341
other 8% −$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-28.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -21.5% -28.9% 42% 36% -4.0%
≤30d 76 -21.5% -28.9% 42% 36% -4.0%
≤90d 76 -21.5% -28.9% 42% 36% -4.0%
all 76 -21.5% -28.9% 42% 36% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.9% 36% -4.0%
10% ← realistic here -35.7% 32% -13.2%
15% -41.9% 25% -21.6%
20% -47.6% 18% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -46% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$31 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$317
Realized+$502
Unrealized−$86
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses32 / 44
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions1
Markets (closed)76 / 77
History coverage5d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 60¢ $403 $317 −$86 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 17 $400 +$5 +1%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $202 +$199 +99%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $283 +$29 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $120 +$63 +52%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $24 −$23 -98%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $713 +$31 +4%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos (BO3) - The International South Amer Jun 16 $661 +$51 +8%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 16 $499 +$162 +32%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $153 −$152 -99%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $33 +$53 +163%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $35 −$34 -98%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $135 +$41 +31%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $89 +$46 +52%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $102 +$485 +473%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $24 +$12 +50%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $262 −$261 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $31 +$63 +206%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $22 −$22 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $320 −$40 -12%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $34 −$34 -99%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $31 +$112 +365%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $101 +$42 +42%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $19 −$19 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 +$12 +234%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $20 +$10 +48%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $97 +$27 +27%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $21 +$27 +128%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $46 +$36 +79%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$20 +20%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $186 +$22 +12%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $178 +$7 +4%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 14 $49 −$48 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $21 +$27 +128%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $23 −$23 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $19 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Alliance - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $69 +$10 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $406 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group SELL Power Rangers 100¢ $405 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Power Rangers 99¢ $400 3h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Vici Gaming 100¢ $401 4h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 50¢ $202 5h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner SELL Vici Gaming 100¢ $312 9h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 90¢ $283 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $120 18h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY Estar Backs 26¢ $24 18h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner SELL PlayTime 100¢ $744 19h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 96¢ $713 19h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos (BO3) - The International South Amer SELL LGD Gaming 100¢ $713 19h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos (BO3) - The International South Amer BUY LGD Gaming 92¢ $661 26h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou SELL Spirit Academy 100¢ $661 26h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou BUY Spirit Academy 75¢ $499 26h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 67¢ $153 27h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 100¢ $86 27h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 37¢ $33 29h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 38¢ $35 31h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Refuser 15¢ $21 31h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 33¢ $20 32h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $135 43h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $135 43h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $89 44h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 100¢ $588 45h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $36 46h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $36 46h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $24 47h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 17¢ $102 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 82¢ $262 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $316.69 · official $316.69 (match) · 112 history records