Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:44:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
70 0x701f…23bd other 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$39 (+37%) realized +$48 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +111% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +63% what you keep after slip
Net edge+63%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$45
other 22% −$6
world 10% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+91.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +111.4% +91.3% 57% 57% +49.3%
≤30d 7 +111.4% +91.3% 57% 57% +49.3%
≤90d 7 +111.4% +91.3% 57% 57% +49.3%
all 7 +111.4% +91.3% 57% 57% +49.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +91.3% 57% +49.3%
10% ← realistic here +73.0% 57% +35.0%
15% +56.3% 57% +22.0%
20% +41.0% 43% +10.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +65% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +111% · $-wt +65% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$1 · ×14.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×19.1 per $1 lost it wins $19.1
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized+$48
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)7 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 45¢ 48¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 $0 -5%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$7 +120%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 +$5 +471%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 +$14 +346%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $49 +$23 +47%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 45¢ $6 24m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 24m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $3 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 53¢ $10 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $13 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? SELL Yes 71¢ $6 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $6 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $6 2h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 SELL Under 94¢ $72 7h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 8h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 8h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 8h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 8h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 63¢ $49 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.18 · official $16.18 (match) · 22 history records