Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:58:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x701e…092b crypto 236 markets active 2h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$724 (-9%) realized −$1,022 · open +$298
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate51%119W / 113L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$414now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$83
7 days−$105
14 days−$105
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$534
other 1% +$33
sports 1% −$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +8.0% -2.3% 60% 50% -22.1%
≤30d 64 -4.1% -13.2% 48% 45% -7.5%
≤90d 173 -12.7% -21.0% 50% 43% -18.0%
all 232 -13.1% -21.4% 51% 42% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 42% -20.0%
10% -28.9% 37% -27.7%
15% -35.8% 32% -34.7%
20% -42.1% 26% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$26 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$414
Realized−$1,022
Unrealized+$298
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses119 / 113
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)232 / 236
History coverage112d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 232 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Up 2¢ 50¢ $10 $252 +$242 (+2425%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Down 26¢ 50¢ $37 $70 +$33 (+90%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Up 44¢ 50¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+15%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Up 28¢ 50¢ $18 $33 +$15 (+80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$19 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 22 $41 +$30 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 22 $41 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 22 $21 +$16 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 22 $38 +$6 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 22 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 22 $28 −$7 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 22 $14 +$9 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 22 $30 +$5 +15%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $64 +$11 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 21 $48 +$16 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 21 $14 +$14 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 21 $34 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 21 $37 −$4 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$4 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$19 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$48 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $83 −$80 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 06 $34 −$7 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 06 $27 −$26 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 04 $4 −$4 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 04 $6 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 04 $4 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 03 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 02 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 02 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 02 $18 +$30 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 01 $17 −$17 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 01 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 01 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 01 $24 +$19 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 01 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 01 $19 +$25 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 01 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 29 $62 +$30 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 29 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 29 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 29 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 29 $38 +$59 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 29 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 29 $21 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 29 $23 +$18 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 29 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 29 $32 +$34 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 29 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 28 $31 +$27 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 28 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $71 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $41 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $44 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $41 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $37 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $21 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $45 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $38 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $33 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $30 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $21 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $28 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $14 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $35 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $30 10h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 96¢ $75 10h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 81¢ $64 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $64 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $48 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $28 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $14 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $22 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $19 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $12 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $413.59 · official $413.59 (match) · 500 history records