Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T14:38:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

70
0x701d…1728
other · 110 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
+$95 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$95 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized+$95
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses80 / 29
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)109 / 110
History coverage578d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit15%
Chart Positions 1 History 109 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 87¢ 78¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times August 15–August 22? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 85¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Elon tweet 400–424 times August 15–August 22? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 65¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times August 15–August 22? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Elon tweet 375–399 times August 15–August 22? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times August 15–August 22? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will Elon tweet 350–374 times August 15–August 22? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times August 15–August 22? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Anyones Legend 29¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $9 +$1 +12%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $2 +$6 +291%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 17 $3 $0 +10%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Apr 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 08 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 06 $12 +$1 +9%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1? Mar 29 $128 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 140-159 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 25 $128 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week Mar 22 $20 +$2 +9%
Will Andrew Tate post 640-669 posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 21 $4 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? Mar 12 $3 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026? Feb 01 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026? Jan 28 $17 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 24 $5 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 21 $29 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026? Jan 13 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 11 $15 −$9 -61%
Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 07 $15 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026? Jan 05 $14 $0 +2%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 05 $53 +$3 +5%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Jan 01 $4 $0 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025? Dec 27 $35 +$1 +2%
Over $30M committed to the Gensyn public sale? Dec 21 $3 $0 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 17 $3 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 04 $4 $0 +4%
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Nov 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch? Nov 26 $6 $0 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 21 $19 $0 +2%
Over $20M committed to the Solomon public sale? Nov 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025? Nov 10 $22 +$1 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025? Nov 05 $60 +$2 +3%
Over $4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 31 $34 +$3 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? Oct 25 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2 Oct 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Solana reach $300 in September? Oct 11 $38 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2 Sep 17 $15 +$35 +233%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2 Sep 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2 Sep 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Elon tweet less than 200 times September 5–12? Sep 12 $45 +$1 +3%
Will Elon tweet 900 or more times August 29–September 5? Sep 05 $75 +$1 +1%
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times August 22–August 29? Aug 30 $4 +$1 +27%
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times August 15–August 22? Aug 23 $3 +$77 +2930%
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times August 15–August 22? Aug 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon tweet 400–424 times August 15–August 22? Aug 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon tweet 375–399 times August 15–August 22? Aug 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon tweet 350–374 times August 15–August 22? Aug 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times August 15–August 22? Aug 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times August 15–August 22? Aug 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 51% −$3
other 48% +$88
crypto 1% $0
sports 0% +$10
finance 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $9 20d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Anyones Legend 29¢ $2 27d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 25¢ $2 27d
Will Trump visit China by May 15? BUY Yes 91¢ $3 34d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week BUY Yes 18¢ $2 55d
Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY No 65¢ $2 66d
Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 85¢ $6 66d
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $12 71d
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1? BUY No 100¢ $128 80d
Will Khamenei post 140-159 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $128 81d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week SELL Yes 11¢ $3 83d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week SELL Yes 19¢ $1 83d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week SELL Yes 19¢ $1 83d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week SELL Yes 19¢ $1 83d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week SELL Yes 19¢ $1 83d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week SELL Yes 19¢ $1 83d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week SELL Yes 19¢ $1 83d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week SELL Yes 19¢ $1 83d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week SELL Yes 19¢ $1 83d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week SELL Yes 19¢ $1 83d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week SELL Yes 19¢ $1 83d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week SELL Yes 19¢ $1 83d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week SELL Yes 19¢ $1 83d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week SELL Yes 19¢ $8 83d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week BUY Yes 16¢ $11 83d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week BUY Yes 16¢ $9 83d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $3 96d
Will Andrew Tate post 640-669 posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $4 97d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $5 137d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)+6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +53.2% +38.6% 75% 50% +20.8%
≤90d 12 -5.5% -14.5% 67% 17% -9.8%
all 109 +17.1% +6.0% 73% 14% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.0% 14% -8.4%
10% -4.2% 9% -17.2%
15% -13.4% 7% -25.2%
20% -21.9% 6% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.99 · official $1.99 (match) · 240 history records