Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:44:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x7018…aebb crypto 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$21 (+4%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day26.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$45
sports 10% −$29
other 5% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-36.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -29.6% -36.3% 43% 43% -26.0%
≤30d 14 -29.6% -36.3% 43% 43% -26.0%
≤90d 14 -29.6% -36.3% 43% 43% -26.0%
all 14 -29.6% -36.3% 43% 43% -26.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.3% 43% -26.0%
10% ← realistic here -42.4% 36% -33.1%
15% -48.0% 21% -39.5%
20% -53.1% 14% -45.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$27 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage2d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day26.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $108 −$105 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $77 +$31 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $81 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $82 +$18 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $46 +$25 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $27 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $7 −$5 -73%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -75%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $45 −$44 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $9 +$15 +170%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $72 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 42 history records